乐观预期纠偏，修复尚需时日

Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - fiber: Oscillation [1] Core Viewpoints - The short - fiber supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and its situation is relatively healthy among polyester products. However, the optimistic market expectations at the beginning of the year are unlikely to be fulfilled, and it will take time for the industry profit to recover. It is recommended to go long on the processing fee when it is low, but also set a timely profit - taking target [5][76] Summary by Directory 1. Fluctuation of Short - fiber Prices and Processing Fees in the First Half of 2025 - Short - fiber prices closely followed polyester raw materials in H1 2025, with increased volatility and a lower processing - fee center. The price trend can be divided into three stages: in the first stage, weak oil prices and demand led to a decline in polyester industry chain prices and weakening processing fees; in the second stage, the US tariff policy caused price fluctuations, and the processing fee first expanded passively and then weakened; in the third stage, geopolitical risks and PX plant production cuts pushed up prices, and the strong raw materials restricted the processing - fee recovery [15][16] 2. Supply: Factory Cyclical Production Cuts Limit Actual Output Growth Potential 2.1 New Capacity Addition is Small, and Existing Device Load Increases Significantly - From 2024 - 2025, new short - fiber capacity addition was small, but the load of existing devices increased significantly. In 2025, the total new capacity was 320,000 tons/year, with a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. The short - fiber capacity growth rate is lower among polyester products, and the supply - demand pattern is relatively healthy. The short - fiber output from January to May 2025 increased by 5.3% year - on - year, and the current output already reflects the impact of new capacity. There are no new capacity addition plans in H2, and factory cyclical production cuts will limit output growth [2][21][27] 2.2 Factory Joint Production Cuts Provide Temporary Support for Processing - Fee Recovery - Since last year, the industry's self - regulatory behavior of adjusting the operating rate based on the processing fee has been effective. In March and June 2025, short - fiber factories reached production - cut agreements. The production - cut plan in June was more aggressive. The current physical inventory of short - fiber factories is at a healthy level, and the production - cut news may boost market confidence and support the processing - fee recovery in the short term [30] 3. Domestic Demand: Terminal Demand Remains Resilient, and the Polyester Yarn Link is the Bottleneck 3.1 Consumption Policies are Effective, and Domestic Textile and Apparel Demand is Expected to Maintain Moderate Growth - In 2025, the domestic consumer market recovered. From January to May, the cumulative growth of total retail sales of consumer goods was 5.0%, and the retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and textiles increased by 3.3% year - on - year. With the implementation of consumption - boosting policies in H2, the domestic textile and apparel market is expected to continue to rise steadily [32] 3.2 The Window Period for "Grabbing Exports" is Coming to an End, and Overseas Orders will be the Core Variable in H2 - From January to May 2025, textile and apparel exports increased by 1.0% year - on - year. The US is still the largest single market for China's textile and apparel exports, but its share is declining. The "grabbing export" phenomenon may have overdrafted the export demand to the US in H2. However, China's exports to some countries such as Europe and ASEAN maintained high growth rates, and the export demand in H2 may decline month - on - month but still maintain some resilience [41][43][44] 3.3 The Profit of the Textile and Apparel Industry Declines, and the Weaving Operating Rate is Lower than the Same Period Last Year - The inventory pressure of textile and apparel finished products is increasing, the industry profit rate is declining, and the production enthusiasm is suppressed. The weaving operating rate has a downward trend and is more than 10% lower than the same period last year [53] 3.4 Downstream Yarn Mills Have High Finished - Product Inventory Pressure and Stable Raw - Material Procurement - The supply - demand situation of the polyester yarn market this year is weaker than last year, with a lower operating rate, high finished - product inventory, and a low processing fee. Yarn mills mainly make small - order and just - in - time purchases due to high inventory and cash - flow losses, which limits the short - fiber demand [62] 4. Exports: Upward Shift of Industry Chain Exports, Strong Growth in Short - fiber Exports - From January to May 2025, the cumulative export volume of uncombed polyester staple fibers was 668,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 31.6%. The reasons for the high - speed growth are the cost advantage and the upward shift of industry chain exports. It is estimated that the export increment in the first five months absorbed about 72.2% of the new short - fiber output, relieving the sales pressure [67][69] 5. Investment Suggestions - Fundamentally, short - fiber supply and demand are relatively balanced. It is recommended to go long on the processing fee when it is near the factory's cash - flow cost, as it has a good risk - return ratio, but also set a timely profit - taking target [5][76]