格林大华期货钢材早盘提示-20250627

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoint - The steel market is in a short - term volatile state. The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils have shown fluctuations, and the market is affected by various factors such as policies, production data, and exchange rates. Traders are advised to wait for opportunities or conduct short - term operations [1] 3. Summary by Directory Market Review - On Thursday, the main rebar contract closed at 2973, up 0.10%; the second - main contract closed at 2978, up 0.17%. The main hot - rolled coil contract closed at 3103, up 0.39%; the second - main contract closed at 3101, up 0.29%. The night session continued to close higher [1] Important Information - The third batch of consumer goods trade - in funds will be issued in July by the National Development and Reform Commission - The Eurasian Economic Commission continues to impose anti - dumping duties on seamless steel pipes from China - In mid - June, the average daily output of crude steel by key steel enterprises was 2.148 million tons, a 0.5% decrease from the previous period. It is estimated that the national daily output of crude steel this ten - day period was 2.77 million tons, a 1.2% increase from the previous period - On June 26, the on - shore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose above the 7.17 and 7.16 levels, reaching a new high since mid - November last year. The US dollar index once fell below the 97.0 level, hitting a new low since February 2022 [1] Market Logic - On Thursday, the spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils fluctuated, and the trading volume was average. During the day, coking coal led the rise, and the finished products rose at the end of the session. The iron ore had a large increase in the night session. According to Steel Union data, this week, the rebar production increased, the inventory decreased, and the apparent demand slightly increased. The production and inventory of hot - rolled coils slightly increased, and the apparent demand decreased. Recently, many electric - arc furnace plants have shut down, but more blast furnaces have resumed production. The hot and rainy weather continues to affect the building materials demand. Rebar and hot - rolled coils are still in the volatile range. The upper pressure level of the main rebar contract is 3050, and the important support level is 2912. The support level of hot - rolled coils is 3026, and the pressure level is 3150. Stainless steel is in a downward trend, with a support level of 12000 and a pressure level of 12655. Attention should be paid to whether rebar and hot - rolled coils can break through the upper edge of the volatile range [1] Trading Strategy - Wait for opportunities or conduct short - term operations [1]