板块轮动月报（2025年7月）：银行+X：金融和科技比翼齐飞-20250627

Core Viewpoints - Despite a turbulent external environment, domestic economic growth is likely to exceed 5% in the first half of the year [1][29] - The market is expected to welcome clearer trading opportunities in July, with increased uncertainty and potential for amplified market volatility [1][29] - There is a recommendation to focus on mid and small-cap stocks, particularly in the financial, growth, and consumer sectors, with an emphasis on banks, brokerages, and TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) [1][5] Market Style Rotation - The market style is shifting towards mid and small-cap stocks, with mid-cap stocks expected to outperform small and large-cap stocks [2][12] - Valuation styles show no significant difference between value and growth indices, indicating a balanced distribution of growth and value styles [2][12] - The industry style ranking suggests that consumption, finance, and growth sectors are expected to outperform, while dividend styles rank lower [2][12] Industry Allocation - The banking sector is viewed as a stabilizing force, while brokerages are expected to find their rhythm, and there is a bullish outlook on TMT [3][5] - Key industries to watch include banks, which are benefiting from asset scarcity and new regulations, brokerages with low valuations and high potential, media driven by short drama trends, and electronics benefiting from semiconductor sales cycles [3][5] Calendar Effect - Historical data from 2010 to 2024 indicates that mid-cap growth styles tend to outperform in July [4][12] - The performance of various indices shows that mid-cap growth indices like the CSI 500 and STAR Market 50 have historically had better outcomes compared to small-cap indices [4][12] Next Month's Sector Allocation Recommendations - The report suggests a focus on financial and technology sectors, with a positive outlook on mid and small-cap stocks [5][29] - The anticipated market dynamics will revolve around internal policy developments, mid-year earnings disclosures, and external changes, which may lead to increased market volatility [5][29]