Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Crude oil is in consolidation. The oil price has returned to fundamental pricing, with a consumption peak season against an increase in supply, leading to price consolidation. [1][3] - LPG is expected to rebound with a bearish bias. Geopolitical tensions have eased, leading to a decline in the cost side and putting pressure on liquefied petroleum gas. [1] - L is in a bearish rebound. The inventory pressure in the upstream and mid - stream has significantly decreased, and the cost side of coking coal has rebounded. [1] - PP is in a bearish rebound. The spot market has weak trading volume, and it will follow the cost rebound in the short term. [1] - PVC is in a bearish rebound. The cost support has improved due to a sharp rebound in coking coal at night, but the supply side is under pressure. [1] - PX is bullish. Both domestic and foreign PX plants are operating at a relatively high load, and there is an increase in both supply and demand. [1] - PTA is bullish. The restart of PTA maintenance devices and the launch of new production capacity are expected to increase supply - side pressure, but the cost side still has support. [1] - Ethylene glycol (MEG) is bearish. The device load has increased, but the demand side is expected to weaken, and the supply - demand situation is expected to be loose. [1] - Glass is in a weak rebound. Domestic macro - policies have boosted the market, and the supply side has slightly decreased, but the medium - term demand contraction has not been alleviated. [2] - Soda ash is in an interval rebound. The weekly operating rate and production have decreased, but the high supply and high inventory limit the upside space. [2] - Caustic soda is in an interval rebound. The upstream maintains high - load production, but the demand support is insufficient. [2] - Methanol is expected to rebound with a bearish bias. The comprehensive operating load is still relatively high, and the demand feedback is negative. [2] - Urea is short - term bullish. Although the supply side pressure is large, the agricultural demand peak season and exports are still worth looking forward to. [2] - Asphalt is bearish. Geopolitical tensions have eased, and it has fallen with the cost side in the short term. [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - 行情回顾: Overnight international oil prices continued to consolidate. WTI rose 0.49%, Brent rose 0.39%, and SC fell 0.65%. [3] - 基本逻辑: The core driver was the cease - fire agreement between Israel and Iran announced by Trump on June 23, which led to a sharp drop in oil prices and the extrusion of geopolitical risk premiums. In terms of supply, Guyana's oil production increased from 611,000 barrels per day in April to 667,000 barrels per day in May. In terms of demand, OPEC's latest monthly report showed that the global crude oil demand growth rate in 2025 was 1.29 million barrels per day, lower than 1.3 million barrels per day in May. In terms of inventory, as of the week ending June 20, U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 5.8 million barrels, strategic crude oil reserves increased by 200,000 barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 2.1 million barrels, and distillate inventories decreased by 4.1 million barrels. [3] - 策略推荐: In the medium - to - long term, due to the tariff war, the impact of new energy, and the expansion cycle of OPEC +, the oil supply will be in surplus, and the oil price is expected to fluctuate between $60 - 70 per barrel. In the short term, the oil price will be weak and volatile. The strategy is to short with a light position and buy call options for protection. SC is expected to be in the range of [490 - 520]. [3] LPG - 行情回顾: On June 26, the PG main contract closed at 4,265 yuan/ton, up 0.66% month - on - month. The spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China remained unchanged from the previous period. [5] - 基本逻辑: The core driver is the decline in geopolitical risks, and the cost side of oil prices has adjusted after the extrusion of geopolitical premiums. As of June 26, the PDH device profit was - 586 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton month - on - month. The supply of liquefied gas increased, and the demand side showed mixed trends in different sectors. The inventory in refineries and ports increased. [6] - 策略推荐: In the medium - to - long term, the supply of upstream crude oil is greater than demand, and the central value is expected to continue to decline. The current ratio of LPG to crude oil is at a high level, and the valuation of LPG is high. In the short term, although there is a rebound on the daily line, the upward momentum is weak. The strategy is to short with a light position or buy put options. PG is expected to be in the range of [4200 - 4300]. [7] L (Polyethylene) - 基本逻辑: In the short term, as the situation in the Middle East eases, the international crude oil price has fallen, weakening the cost support for polyethylene. The supply is expected to increase in the short term due to the restart of some previously maintained devices, while the demand is in the off - season. The inventory pressure in the upstream and mid - stream has decreased, and the cost side of coking coal has rebounded. The North China basis has turned negative, and the willingness to replenish inventory in the off - season is insufficient. [9] - 策略推荐: The strategy is to be long in the short term and short in the long term. L is expected to be in the range of [7250 - 7400]. [9] PP (Polypropylene) - 基本逻辑: The cost decline has dampened market sentiment, and the trading atmosphere in the market is weak. The supply - side device maintenance has increased, but the downstream demand is in the off - season. The spot market has weak trading volume, and it will follow the cost rebound in the short term. However, the supply will be under pressure in the medium - to - long term due to the high pressure of device production capacity launch in the third quarter. [11] - 策略推荐: Treat it as a short - term rebound, and short on rebounds. PP is expected to be in the range of [7050 - 7200]. [11] PVC - 基本逻辑: Geopolitical conflicts have led to fluctuations in the crude oil market and affected the PVC market. The cost support has improved due to a sharp rebound in coking coal at night, but the supply side is under pressure due to the planned launch of new production capacity in the future. The domestic demand is in the seasonal off - season, while the export still has support. [13] - 策略推荐: Be bearish on rebounds and do not short in the short term. V is expected to be in the range of [4850 - 5000]. [13] PX - 行情回顾: On June 20, the spot price of PX in East China was 7,050 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month), and the PX09 contract closed at 7,076 yuan/ton (- 18). The 9 - 1 month spread was 232 yuan/ton (- 40), and the basis in East China was - 26 yuan/ton (+ 18). [14] - 基本逻辑: The profit of PX has continued to improve, and both domestic and foreign plants are operating at a relatively high load. The PXN spread is 270.9 dollars/ton (+ 8.5). The demand side of PTA is expected to improve, and the inventory is decreasing. [15] - 策略推荐: Pay attention to the opportunity to go long at low prices. PX is expected to be in the range of [6680 - 6790]. [15] PTA - 行情回顾: On June 20, the PTA price in East China was 5,280 yuan/ton (+ 105), and the TA09 contract closed at 4,978 yuan/ton (- 10). The TA9 - 1 month spread was 180 yuan/ton (- 26), and the basis in East China was 302 yuan/ton (+ 115). [16] - 基本逻辑: The short - term supply - side pressure is expected to increase due to the restart of maintenance devices and the launch of new production capacity. The demand side is expected to weaken as the downstream polyester starts to maintain a high level, but the terminal weaving start - up load continues to decline. The inventory is generally low, and the cost side has support. [17] - 策略推荐: Pay attention to the opportunity to go long at low prices. TA is expected to be in the range of [4740 - 4820]. [17] MEG - 行情回顾: On June 20, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4,580 yuan/ton (+ 33), and the EG09 contract closed at 4,501 yuan/ton (- 38). The EG9 - 1 month spread was 14 yuan/ton (- 9), and the East China basis was 79 yuan/ton (+ 71). [18] - 基本逻辑: The device load has increased, but the arrival volume and import volume are low compared to the same period. The demand side is expected to weaken as the downstream polyester starts to maintain a high level, but the terminal weaving start - up load continues to decline. The inventory is decreasing. [19] - 策略推荐: Be bearish. EG is expected to be in the range of [4270 - 4320]. [20] Glass - 行情回顾: The spot market quotation is stable, the futures market is in a weak rebound, the basis has expanded, and the number of warehouse receipts remains unchanged. [21] - 基本逻辑: Domestically, macro - policies have boosted the market, and the supply side has slightly decreased. However, the medium - term demand contraction has not been alleviated. The current coal - based production still has profits, and it is difficult to trigger large - scale cold repairs. The futures price is at a discount to the spot price and is lower than the coal - based cost. [22] - 策略推荐: The futures price is expected to have a weak rebound, with the 5 - day moving average providing weak support. FG is expected to be in the range of [1010 - 1030]. [22] Soda Ash - 行情回顾: The spot price of heavy soda ash has been raised, the futures market has stabilized, the main - contract basis has narrowed, the number of warehouse receipts has increased, and the number of effective forecasts has decreased. [24] - 基本逻辑: Recently, some soda ash plants have reduced their loads, resulting in a slight reduction in overall supply. However, the industry's operating rate is still at a high level, and the pressure of oversupply in the later period remains. The terminal consumption of soda ash is mediocre, and the glass futures price is consolidating at a low level, providing limited support to the upstream. The manufacturer's inventory has continued to accumulate. [25] - 策略推荐: It is expected to have an interval rebound. SA is expected to be in the range of [1175 - 1205]. [25] Caustic Soda - 行情回顾: The spot price of caustic soda is stable, the futures market has a weak rebound at a low level, the basis has weakened, and the number of warehouse receipts remains unchanged. [27] - 基本逻辑: On the supply side, due to good chlor - alkali profits, most upstream plants maintain high - load production, and there is an expectation of new production capacity coming on - stream in June - July, increasing the supply pressure. However, there is also an expectation of inventory reduction during the summer maintenance season. On the demand side, the main downstream, alumina, has a slight decline in start - up and a reduction in metallurgical profits, and the non - aluminum demand is still weak. The cost support has shifted downwards. [28] - 策略推荐: Pay attention to the weak rebound driven by inventory reduction during maintenance. Short - position holders should reduce their positions. SH is expected to be in the range of [2300 - 2350]. [2] Methanol - 行情回顾: On June 20, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2,664 yuan/ton (- 12), and the main 09 contract closed at 2,529 yuan/ton (- 14). The East China basis was 135 yuan/ton (+ 2), the port basis was 221 yuan/ton (- 1), the MA9 - 1 month spread was 18 yuan/ton (- 10), and the China - Southeast Asia methanol re - export profit increased to 32 dollars/ton (+ 5). [29] - 基本逻辑: The methanol plant is under maintenance, but the comprehensive operating load is still relatively high. There is negative feedback on the demand side as the load of coastal MTO plants has decreased, and the order volume of upstream methanol enterprises has declined. The valuation is high, and the social inventory has increased. [2] - 策略推荐: Pay attention to the opportunity to short the 09 contract and go long on the 01 contract. MA is expected to be in the range of [2380 - 2440]. [2] Urea - 基本逻辑: The restart of maintenance devices has led to a high daily production, and the supply - side pressure is large. The industrial demand is weak, but the agricultural demand peak season is approaching, and the fertilizer export growth rate is fast. There is still cost support. [2] - 策略推荐: Hold previous long positions cautiously and pay attention to the opportunity to short at high prices. UR is expected to be in the range of [1710 - 1750]. [2] Asphalt - 基本逻辑: Geopolitical tensions have eased, and the oil price has extruded the geopolitical premium, causing it to decline with the cost side in the short term. The supply has increased, and the inventory has accumulated. The demand shows a pattern of "strong in the north and weak in the south". [2] - 策略推荐: Short with a light position. BU is expected to be in the range of [3500 - 3600]. [2]
中辉期货LPG早报-20250627
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-06-27 07:11