光大期货软商品日报-20250627

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Cotton: On Thursday, ICE U.S. cotton rose 0.64% to close at 68.76 cents per pound, and CF509 rose 0.77% to close at 13,720 yuan per ton. The position of the main contract increased by 24,084 lots to 584,200 lots. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang was 14,957 yuan per ton, up 125 yuan from the previous day, and the China Cotton Price Index for Grade 3128B was 15,020 yuan per ton, up 82 yuan from the previous day. In the international market, the macro - level remains the focus, with the U.S. dollar index oscillating weakly, providing some support for U.S. cotton prices, but the fundamental driving force is limited. In the domestic market, the center of the Zhengzhou cotton futures price has oscillated upward, and the position of the main contract has continued to increase. Fundamentally, low inventory is a supporting factor, and the weather in Xinjiang in mid - June had some disturbances, supporting cotton prices. In the short term, the macro - sentiment has heated up, and the fundamental support has strengthened. The center of the Zhengzhou cotton price may continue to move up slightly, but the upside space is expected to be relatively limited due to the expected high yield of new cotton. Attention should be paid to macro and weather changes [1]. - Sugar: From August 1, 2025, the ethanol blending ratio in gasoline will be increased from the current 27% to 30%, and the biodiesel blending ratio in diesel will be increased from the current 14% to 15%. The spot quotes of Guangxi sugar - making groups are 6,030 - 6,110 yuan per ton, up 20 - 40 yuan per ton; those of Yunnan sugar - making groups are 5,810 - 5,850 yuan per ton, up 20 yuan per ton. Regarding raw sugar, the increase in the Brazilian ethanol blending ratio is attracting attention, which can be seen as a way to digest the increased sugarcane production and support the bottom price, but it does not have a strong boosting effect under the high - yield environment with limited conversion volume. In the domestic market, raw sugar is moving sideways, the domestic spot quotes are rising, the group inventory pressure is not large, and there is some inventory in the trading sector. In the short term, it will continue the small - scale rebound driven by basis repair [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Cotton: The 9 - 1 contract spread is 55, up 35; the main basis is 1,300, up 7. The Xinjiang spot price is 14,957 yuan per ton, up 125 yuan, and the national spot price is 15,020 yuan per ton, up 82 yuan [2]. - Sugar: The 9 - 1 contract spread is 184, up 18; the main basis is 310, up 2. The Nanning spot price is 6,080 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan, and the Liuzhou spot price is 6,100 yuan per ton, up 35 yuan [2]. 3.2 Market Information - Cotton: On June 26, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 10,334, down 45 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 295. The cotton arrival prices in different regions were: 14,957 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 15,050 yuan per ton in Henan, 15,023 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 15,268 yuan per ton in Zhejiang. The yarn comprehensive load was 53.1, down 0.2 from the previous day; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 27.7, up 0.3 from the previous day; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 49.1, unchanged from the previous day; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 33.3, unchanged from the previous day [3]. - Sugar: On June 26, the Nanning spot price of sugar was 6,080 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan from the previous day, and the Liuzhou spot price was 6,100 yuan per ton, up 35 yuan from the previous day. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 24,302, down 310 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 0 [3][4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts for cotton and sugar, including the closing price of the main contract, the basis of the main contract, the contract spread, the warehouse receipts and effective forecasts, etc., with data sources from Wind and the Guangda Futures Research Institute [6][14][16]