Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for various black commodities are as follows: steel (low - level consolidation), iron ore (fluctuation), coking coal (fluctuation with a slightly upward trend), coke (fluctuation with a slightly upward trend), manganese silicon (fluctuation with a slightly upward trend), and ferrosilicon (fluctuation with a slightly upward trend) [1][3] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. In the off - season, inventory has not accumulated, and the contradiction in the spot fundamentals is not obvious, but market expectations are cautious. The short - term steel futures market is expected to operate in a low - level consolidation [1]. - For iron ore, with the increase in supply from Australia and Brazil and the change in demand and inventory, the price of the iron ore futures market is expected to fluctuate under the influence of both long and short factors [1]. - In the coking coal market, with the recovery of some coal mines' production and the downstream's replenishment, the inventory of upstream coal mines has decreased, but the downstream's procurement of high - priced resources is still general. The short - term coking coal futures market is expected to operate with a slightly upward trend [1]. - The coke market has seen an improvement in the inventory pressure of coke enterprises and an increase in the steel mills' procurement willingness. The short - term coke futures market is expected to operate with a slightly upward trend [1]. - Regarding manganese silicon, although the news of the reduction in South African manganese ore shipments has boosted market sentiment and strengthened cost support, the fundamental driving force is not strong, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate with a slightly upward trend [3]. - For ferrosilicon, the overall black sector is strong, and the cost support is expected to increase. However, the fundamental driving force is limited, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate with a slightly upward trend [3]. Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog 1. Research Views - Steel: The closing price of the rebar 2510 contract was 2973 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton or 0.1% compared with the previous trading day, and the position increased by 19,200 lots. The spot price was basically stable, and the transaction volume increased slightly. This week, the national rebar production increased by 56,600 tons to 2.1784 million tons, the social inventory decreased by 53,500 tons to 3.634 million tons, the factory inventory increased by 32,800 tons to 1.856 million tons, and the apparent demand increased by 7,200 tons to 2.1991 million tons [1]. - Iron Ore: The closing price of the iron ore futures main contract i2509 was 705.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton or 0.43% compared with the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 330,000 lots and a reduction of 18,000 lots in positions. The port spot prices showed mixed trends. The global iron ore shipments increased slightly. The blast furnace operating rate remained unchanged, and the hot metal production increased by 110 tons to 242,290 tons. The inventory of 47 ports' imported iron ore increased by 466,700 tons to 14.48023 million tons, and the number of ships at the port decreased by 11 to 85. The inventory of imported ore in national steel mills decreased by 880,000 tons to 8.847 million tons [1]. - Coking Coal: The closing price of the coking coal 2509 contract was 819.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton or 1.86% compared with the previous trading day, and the position increased by 40,404 lots. The price of main coking coal in Shanxi Lvliang area increased by 20 yuan to 883 yuan/ton. The Mongolian coal market was operating strongly, but the market transaction was light. Some coal mines have resumed production, and downstream coke enterprises are actively replenishing their stocks [1]. - Coke: The closing price of the coke 2509 contract was 1395.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan/ton or 0.58% compared with the previous trading day, and the position increased by 24 lots. The spot price of port coke was stable. After the four - round price cut of coke, some coke enterprises limited production due to losses, but the overall operating situation changed little. The steel mills' replenishment enthusiasm increased slightly, and the inventory pressure of coke enterprises was relieved [1]. - Manganese Silicon: On Thursday, the price of manganese silicon futures fluctuated strongly, with the main contract closing at 5676 yuan/ton, a 0.96% increase compared with the previous day, and the position decreased by 2966 lots to 398,500 lots. There was news that South African manganese ore shipments would be reduced. The weekly production of manganese silicon has been rising for 5 consecutive weeks, but the demand has not improved significantly [3]. - Ferrosilicon: On Thursday, the price of ferrosilicon futures fluctuated strongly, with the main contract closing at 5384 yuan/ton, a 0.98% increase compared with the previous day, and the position decreased by 4857 lots to 221,400 lots. The overall black sector was strong, and the price of coking coal led the increase. The cost support was expected to increase. The weekly production of ferrosilicon increased by nearly 3% to 97,900 tons, and the demand of sample steel mills increased slightly [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Contract Spread: For rebar, the 10 - 1 month spread was - 5.0, a decrease of 3.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was 0.0, unchanged. For hot - rolled coil, the 10 - 1 month spread was 2.0, an increase of 3.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was 4.0, a decrease of 3.0. For iron ore, the 9 - 1 month spread was 26.0, unchanged; the 1 - 5 month spread was 16.5, unchanged. For coke, the 9 - 1 month spread was - 38.5, an increase of 2.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was - 23.0, an increase of 7.5. For coking coal, the 9 - 1 month spread was - 36.0, an increase of 7.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was - 26.0, a decrease of 1.0. For manganese silicon, the 9 - 1 month spread was - 34.0, a decrease of 4.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was - 18.0, a decrease of 2.0. For ferrosilicon, the 9 - 1 month spread was 30.0, a decrease of 14.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was - 6.0, an increase of 16.0 [4]. - Basis: For rebar, the basis of the 10 - contract was 87.0, a decrease of 7.0; the basis of the 01 - contract was 82.0, a decrease of 10.0. For hot - rolled coil, the basis of the 10 - contract was 77.0, a decrease of 5.0; the basis of the 01 - contract was 79.0, a decrease of 2.0. For iron ore, the basis of the 09 - contract was 34.5, a decrease of 3.0; the basis of the 01 - contract was 60.5, a decrease of 3.0. For coke, the basis of the 09 - contract was - 121.4, a decrease of 8.0; the basis of the 01 - contract was - 159.9, a decrease of 6.0. For coking coal, the basis of the 09 - contract was 23.5, a decrease of 15.0; the basis of the 01 - contract was - 12.5, a decrease of 8.0. For manganese silicon, the basis of the 09 - contract was - 156.0, a decrease of 2.0; the basis of the 01 - contract was - 190.0, a decrease of 6.0. For ferrosilicon, the basis of the 09 - contract was - 134.0, an increase of 40.0; the basis of the 01 - contract was - 104.0, an increase of 26.0 [4]. - Spot Price: The spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3060 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; in Beijing was 3150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; in Guangzhou was 3140 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3180 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin was 3150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangzhou was 3280 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton. The spot price of PB powder was 700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of super - special powder was 595 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton. The spot price of Rizhao's quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1140 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1035 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price of manganese silicon in Ningxia was 5470 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan/ton; in Inner Mongolia was 5520 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton; in Guangxi was 5500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price of ferrosilicon in Ningxia was 5130 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton; in Inner Mongolia was 5150 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton; in Qinghai was 5150 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton [4]. - Profit and Spread: The rebar's disk profit was 68.2, a decrease of 11.9; the long - process profit was 99.8, a decrease of 8.2; the short - process profit was - 152.0, an increase of 12.1. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 130.0, an increase of 8.0; the ratio of rebar to iron ore was 4.2, a decrease of 0.02; the ratio of rebar to coke was 2.1, a decrease of 0.01; the ratio of coking coal to iron ore was 1.7, a decrease of 0.02; the ratio of coke to iron ore was 2.0, unchanged; the spread between manganese silicon and ferrosilicon was - 292.0, a decrease of 12.0 [4]. 3. Chart Analysis - Main Contract Price: The report presents the closing price trends of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][8][10][12][15]. - Main Contract Basis: It shows the basis trends of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [17][18][21][23]. - Inter - period Contract Spread: It includes the spread trends of different contracts (such as 10 - 01, 01 - 05) of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [25][27][29][32][34][35][38]. - Inter - variety Contract Spread: It shows the spread trends of different varieties, such as the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, the ratio of rebar to coke, etc. [40][41][42][43]. - Rebar Profit: It presents the trends of rebar's disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit from 2020 to 2025 [45][46][47][48]. 4. Black Research Team Member Introduction - The black research team members include Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich experience and professional qualifications in the black industry [50][51]
黑色商品日报-20250627
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-06-27 07:14