宏观金融数据日报-20250627

Report Overview - The report is a macro - financial data daily report from Guomao Futures Research Institute, dated June 27, 2025 [2][3] 1. Interest Rate and Bond Market 1.1 Interest Rate and Bond Price Movements - DROO1 closed at 1.37 with a - 0.19bp change, DR007 at 1.69 with a - 0.86bp change, GC001 at 1.73 with a - 8.00bp change, and GC007 at 1.93 with a - 4.50bp change. SHBOR 3M was at 1.63 with no change, and LPR 5 - year was at 3.50 with no change [4] - 1 - year treasury bond closed at 1.37 with a 0.72bp change, 5 - year at 1.52 with a 0.38bp change, 10 - year at 1.65 with a - 0.18bp change, and 10 - year US treasury bond at 4.29 with a - 1.00bp change [4] 1.2 Central Bank Operations - The central bank conducted 5093 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday, with 2035 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 3058 billion yuan. This week, there are 9603 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing in the central bank's open - market operations, with 1612 billion yuan maturing on Friday [4] 1.3 Policy Stance - Central Bank Governor Pan Gongsheng stated that the central bank has maintained a supportive monetary policy stance in the past year, introducing multiple monetary policy measures from quantity, price, and structure aspects, effectively supporting economic recovery and financial market stability. The central bank is also improving its monetary policy framework and will continue to evaluate and improve it [4] 2. Stock Index Market 2.1 Stock Index Performance - The CSI 300 closed at 3946, down 0.35%; the SSE 50 at 2738, down 0.34%; the CSI 500 at 5838, down 0.41%; and the CSI 1000 at 6248, down 0.45%. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 15832 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 196 billion yuan from the previous day [5] - Industry sectors showed more declines than gains. Shipbuilding, tourism and hotels, mining, diversified finance, and banking sectors led the gains, while chemical pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, medical services, beauty care, and automobile manufacturing sectors led the losses [5] 2.2 Market Commentary - The stock index closed slightly lower yesterday. The financial sector, which led the rise in the previous two days, weakened, but the trading volume remained high, close to 1.6 trillion yuan. With a relatively quiet domestic and international news environment, the stock index is likely to strengthen further driven by sentiment and liquidity after a strong breakthrough. Attention should be paid to macro - incremental information for guidance on the stock index direction [6] 2.3 Reasons for the Rise - The main reasons for the strong rise of the stock index this week are: the rapid reversal of the Israel - Iran situation with a cease - fire, reducing geopolitical disturbances; Trump's statement that US interest rates should be cut by at least 200 - 300bp, increasing overseas interest - rate cut expectations; and the acceleration of China's financial policy opening - up, enhancing expectations of overseas capital inflows [6] 3. Stock Index Futures Basis - IF basis was 10.60% for the current - month contract, 7.00% for the next - month contract, 4.55% for the current - quarter contract, and 3.81% for the next - quarter contract. IH basis was 14.58%, 7.80%, 4.31%, and 2.06% respectively. IC basis was 8.25%, 8.43%, 8.04%, and 7.81% respectively. IM basis was 9.56%, 10.65%, 10.31%, and 10.44% respectively [7]