宏观经济专题研究：“投资驱动型增长”正在走向效率悬崖

Economic Growth Dynamics - The fundamental driver of economic growth is the dynamic balance between investment and consumption, where investment creates new supply and consumption represents demand[1] - GDP can be divided into capital income and non-capital income, with capital income being concentrated among a few individuals, leading to a low marginal propensity to consume[1] Investment Efficiency Decline - Since the 2009 financial crisis, China's capital-output ratio (K/GDP) has continuously increased, indicating that capital stock growth has outpaced GDP growth, resulting in declining investment efficiency[3] - From 2010 to 2020, China's capital income share remained relatively stable, while capital return rates (r) have been decreasing, indicating a negative correlation between K/GDP and r[3][4] Structural Challenges and Solutions - The current structural dilemma arises from declining investment efficiency and insufficient consumption demand, necessitating a shift from "heavy investment, light consumption" to activating domestic consumption, particularly in services[4] - A significant portion (70%) of fixed asset investment is related to construction and installation, while service consumption among residents remains notably low, contributing to capital idleness[4][5] Sustainable Growth Path - To achieve sustainable growth and avoid the "efficiency cliff," the growth engine must transition from a single "investment-driven" model to a dual "consumption-led, investment-responsive" model[4] - The investment evaluation system should incorporate "capital stock/GDP" and "capacity utilization" as core efficiency indicators to avoid ineffective capital accumulation[4] Risk Considerations - There are risks associated with model failure, tail risks, and uncertainties in domestic policy execution that could impact the effectiveness of proposed strategies[4][5]