2025年5月工业企业盈利数据点评：工业企业利润增速缘何回落？

Profit Trends - In May 2025, industrial enterprises' profit growth rate fell to -9.1%, down from +3.0% in April 2025, marking a significant decline[4] - Cumulative profit growth for January to May 2025 was -1.1%, compared to +1.4% for January to April 2025[2] - Cumulative revenue growth for the same period was +2.7%, down from +3.2% in the previous four months[2] Contributing Factors - The decline in profit growth is attributed to weakening export support, increased year-on-year declines in industrial product prices, and lower profit margins[3] - The profit margin for May 2025 decreased to 5.3%, down from 5.4% in April 2025, due to rising operating costs and high base effects from the previous year[4] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw an expanded year-on-year decline from -2.7% to -3.3% in May 2025, influenced by falling international oil prices and weak domestic demand[5] Sector Performance - By sector, mining profits fell by 29.0%, while manufacturing and electricity, gas, and water supply sectors saw growth rates of 5.4% and 3.7%, respectively, for January to May 2025[14] - The manufacturing sector's profit margin increased to 4.25%, while the mining sector's margin decreased to 16.92%[14] Market Dynamics - Private enterprises maintained a positive profit growth rate of +3.4% for January to May 2025, while state-owned enterprises experienced a decline of -7.4%[26] - Industrial enterprises are currently in a phase of active destocking, with inventory growth at 3.5%, down from 4.0% in the previous month[28] Outlook and Risks - Future profit recovery for industrial enterprises remains uncertain due to potential overseas demand fluctuations, ongoing negative price trends, and insufficient effective demand[33] - Risks include policy implementation falling short of expectations and unexpected changes in the international political and economic landscape[34]