Dongguan Securities·2025-06-27 09:21Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the basic chemical industry [3] Core Insights - The report highlights that the third batch of consumer goods replacement funds will be allocated in July, which is expected to sustain the prosperity of the home appliance and automotive sectors. Additionally, the newly revised Anti-Unfair Competition Law has been passed, indicating the government's focus on addressing "involution" competition. Currently, the overall profitability of the basic chemical industry is at a low point, leading to a decrease in companies' willingness to expand production, which may result in a more rational supply in the industry. The report suggests continuing to monitor segments with favorable supply-demand dynamics [3][33] Market Review - As of June 26, 2025, the CITIC basic chemical industry has increased by 0.81% over the past two weeks, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.57 percentage points, ranking 12th among 30 CITIC industries. Year-to-date, the industry has risen by 6.92%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 6.64 percentage points, ranking 10th [11][12] Chemical Product Price Trends - The report identifies the top five chemical products with the highest price increases in the past week: - Methyl isobutyl ketone (+11.77%) - Methyl chloride (+9.09%) - Liquid chlorine (+7.35%) - Aniline (+5.65%) - Hydrogen peroxide (+5.56%) - Conversely, the top five products with the largest price declines are: - Fumed silica (-13.51%) - Tetrachloroethylene (-8.66%) - PX (-5.90%) - Benzene (-5.88%) - Polyether amine (-5.77%) [24][28] Industry Segments - Refrigerants: The report notes that the quota for second-generation refrigerants will be accelerated, while the quota for third-generation refrigerants remains frozen. Demand for refrigerants is expected to rise due to strong air conditioning and new energy vehicle production data. Companies to watch include Sanmei Co., Ltd. (603379) and Juhua Co., Ltd. (600160) [33] - Sweeteners: For sucralose, the upcoming peak season and high industry concentration suggest potential price increases. Companies to monitor include Jinhui Zhaofeng (002597). For allulose, if approved for domestic use, it could see accelerated application in food and healthcare sectors, with a focus on Bailong Chuangyuan (605016) [34] - Lubricant Additives: The demand for lubricant additives is expected to grow with the increase in automotive and machinery sales. However, the market is in a mature phase, and growth rates are expected to stabilize. Domestic manufacturers are likely to gain market share due to the need for supply chain security, with recommended companies being Ruifeng New Materials (300910) and Lianlong (300596) [34]