集运日报：线上报价遇瓶颈，盘面震荡，若有空单可继续持有，近期博弈难度较大，建议轻仓参与或观望。-20250627

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report indicates that due to geopolitical conflicts, the shipping market has high trading difficulty. With no significant positive news, the market is prone to decline and difficult to rise. It is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines. Attention should be paid to negotiation results, tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [2][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Freight Index - On June 23, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1937.14 points, up 14.1% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 2083.46 points, down 28.4% from the previous period [3]. - On June 20, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1382.05 points, down 10.07% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1299.58 points, down 0.64% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1586.05 points, down 28.91% from the previous period [3]. - On June 20, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1869.59 points, down 218.65 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 1835 USD/TEU, down 0.49% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US - West route was 2772 USD/FEU, down 32.86% from the previous period [3]. - On June 20, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1342.46 points, up 8.0% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1578.60 points, up 6.0% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 1256.91 points, up 14.8% from the previous period [3]. 3.2 Market Situation and Strategy - The online quotes have reached a bottleneck, and the market is volatile. If there are short positions, they can be held. It is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [2]. - Some shipping companies have announced freight rate increases, and attention should be paid to the implementation of price - support measures. In the absence of more positive news, the market is prone to decline [5]. - On June 26, the main contract 2508 closed at 1759.9, up 1.24%, with a trading volume of 38,500 lots and an open interest of 41,500 lots, a decrease of 2043 lots from the previous day [5]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: In the absence of an obvious fundamental turnaround, it is recommended to try short positions on rallies. For the 2508 contract, it is recommended to try short positions lightly when it rebounds above 2000. Hold short positions and stop - loss long positions, and set stop - loss and take - profit levels [6]. - Arbitrage strategy: Due to the volatile international situation, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for now [6]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rallies, wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback, and then judge the subsequent direction [6]. 3.4 Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts 2506 - 2604 is adjusted to 16% [6]. - The margin for contracts 2506 - 2604 is adjusted to 26% [6]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2506 - 2604 is 100 lots [6]. 3.5 Geopolitical Events - Since June 13, there have been conflicts between Israel and Iran. The cease - fire agreement between the two countries officially took effect after noon on the 24th. The repeated situation has affected international oil prices and the shipping market. The container transportation price from China to the Middle East has risen, with a single - container increase of about 50% [7].