2025年下半年投资策略：从国内复苏斜率到全球波动率看资产配置

Group 1: Domestic Macroeconomic Outlook - The domestic macroeconomic environment is expected to continue the weak recovery trend observed in the first half of the year [3] - Fixed asset investment is anticipated to maintain strong performance in the second half, with equipment purchase growth supported by policies exceeding 15% year-on-year, particularly in manufacturing investment [4] - Infrastructure investment is expected to show over 10% high growth, playing a counter-cyclical role [4] - External trade may weaken but is expected to contribute positively to the economy, with a trade surplus increase of $135.6 billion year-on-year from January to May 2025 [9] - Consumption growth is projected to improve compared to 2024, driven by increased public fiscal spending and government consumption [11][13] - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization in some first-tier cities, despite overall weakness in the sector [14] Group 2: Bond Market Analysis - After a period of adjustment, bond market yields have once again declined, with a cautious outlook for the future [19] - The 10-year government bond yield has been hovering around 1.60%, with significant adjustments due to rising funding costs and a negative carry phenomenon [20][22] - The current monetary policy is expected to remain "moderately loose," with potential interest rate cuts exceeding 30 basis points in 2025 [27] Group 3: Stock Market Insights - The stock market has successfully formed a bottom, with a notable wealth effect observed post-Spring Festival, particularly in Hong Kong stocks [28] - The A-share market has shown resilience during downturns, maintaining a solid bottom [34] - Following the tariff adjustments, the stock market has experienced a second wave of growth, with sectors such as comprehensive finance and communication leading the way [44] Group 4: U.S. Economic and Market Conditions - The U.S. inflation rate remains above the Federal Reserve's target, with the CPI year-on-year growth at 2.4% as of May 2025 [50] - The U.S. job market remains stable, with non-farm payrolls adding 139,000 jobs in May, exceeding expectations [56] - The U.S. debt ceiling has been breached, with ongoing negotiations in Congress to address the issue [63][65] - The U.S. capital markets are experiencing significant volatility, with a notable weakening of the U.S. dollar and a strengthening of gold as a safe-haven asset [69][81]