2025年6月策略月报：金融加力支持高质量发展-20250627

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a general upward trend in June, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,455.97 points, an increase of 3.24% compared to the end of May. The Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 indices experienced significant gains [2][11][12] - In June, 23 out of 31 Shenwan first-level industries saw an increase, with the non-bank financial sector leading with a growth of 10.64% [12][41] - The consumer sector is expected to benefit from policies aimed at expanding domestic demand, with a focus on enhancing consumption potential [3][44] Market Liquidity and Risk Sentiment - As of June 25, the A-share market's liquidity improved, with a net increase in major shareholders' holdings amounting to 46.132 billion yuan, and the total amount of A-share unlocks reaching approximately 215.756 billion yuan, an increase from the previous month [24][28] - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market increased to 12,943.21 billion yuan, up 6.55% from May [28][31] - The sentiment in the market was influenced by the easing of US-China trade tensions and the announcement of new policies aimed at supporting technology enterprises, which helped boost investor confidence [32][44] Policy Analysis - The Chinese government has introduced a series of measures to support consumption and economic growth, including 19 key initiatives aimed at enhancing financial services for consumption [44][45] - The introduction of the "1+6" policy measures for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board aims to better serve technology enterprises and enhance the inclusivity and adaptability of the system [45][46] - The focus on expanding domestic demand and strengthening the domestic circulation is expected to provide a solid foundation for sustained economic recovery [3][44] Valuation Levels - As of June 25, the dynamic price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the Shanghai 50 index is at a historical percentile of 78.44%, indicating a relatively high valuation compared to historical levels [41][42] - Most Shenwan first-level industries have seen an increase in valuation, with sectors such as retail, telecommunications, and electronics exceeding the historical 50th percentile for PE ratios [42][43]