沥青周报：重回偏强基本面-20250627

Report Title - The report is titled "Asphalt Weekly Report: Return to a Relatively Strong Fundamental Situation" [1] Report Date - The report is dated June 27, 2025 [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - Last week's view: Although asphalt prices were rising, it had the smallest increase among crude oil products and was a suitable short - allocation variety during significant oil price fluctuations. Its recent trend mainly followed the cost - end crude oil, and despite good fundamentals, it was difficult to stand out in the sharply rising oil prices due to short - term events [7] - This week's trend analysis: This week, asphalt prices continued to rise in a volatile manner, generally following the sharp increase in cost - end crude oil [7] - This week's industry data: This week, both supply and demand from refineries increased. Refinery inventories decreased to a certain extent and remained at a low level compared to the same period. Social inventories also decreased slightly. Overall data this year is significantly better than last year and shows a marginal improvement [7] - This week's view: With the end of the Middle East conflict, asphalt is no longer a suitable short - allocation variety during significant oil price fluctuations. After reverting to its own logic, asphalt with good fundamentals is expected to have a volatile and upward - trending price [7] 3. Summary by Directory 2.1 Asphalt Futures Trends, Spreads, and Basis - The section presents graphs of asphalt futures trends, including the main asphalt price, the spread between September and December contracts, and the basis in East China and Shandong regions. The data sources are Wind and Steel Union Data [9][10][11] 2.2 Asphalt Supply - It shows graphs of asphalt plant operating rates, weekly asphalt production, refinery asphalt profits, and the profit difference between asphalt and fuel oil multiplied by the asphalt operating rate. The data source is Steel Union Data [12][13][14] 2.3 Asphalt Demand - This part includes graphs of asphalt shipment volume, apparent asphalt consumption, paver sales, and paver sales multiplied by apparent asphalt consumption. The data source is Steel Union Data [15][16][17] 2.4 Asphalt Imports and Exports - It presents graphs of asphalt imports, exports, and import windows in East China and South China. The data source is Steel Union Data [18][19][20] 2.5 Asphalt Inventory - The section shows graphs of refinery inventories, social inventories, futures inventories, and monthly futures delivery volumes. The data source is Steel Union Data [21][22][23] 2.6 Shandong Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory - It includes graphs of operating rates, shipment volumes, refinery inventories, and social inventories in Shandong. The data source is Steel Union Data [24][25][26] 2.7 East China Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory - This part presents graphs of operating rates, shipment volumes, refinery inventories, and social inventories in East China. The data source is Steel Union Data [27][28][29] 2.8 South China Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory - It shows graphs of operating rates, shipment volumes, refinery inventories, and social inventories in South China. The data source is Steel Union Data [30][31][32] Asphalt Production Enterprise Maintenance Information - Multiple enterprises are undergoing maintenance, including Jiangsu Xinhai, Xinjiang Tianzhize, etc. The total annual production capacity of the maintained units is 18.16 million tons, and the maintenance loss is 681,000 tons [33]