低票息时代下的城投资产选择

Group 1: Market Performance in the First Half - The issuance of urban investment bonds reached 34,150 billion yuan in 2025, a decrease of 3,747 billion yuan compared to the same period in 2024, while repayments totaled 30,549 billion yuan, down 3,152 billion yuan from 2024 [10][22] - Net financing for urban investment bonds was 3,601 billion yuan, a decline of 595 billion yuan compared to the same period in 2023, indicating a continued downward trend in net financing since 2024 [10][22] - By June 20, 2025, 10 out of 12 provinces had positive net financing, with significant declines noted in Shandong, Henan, Jiangxi, Fujian, and Shanghai [22][23] Group 2: Secondary Market Performance - The performance of urban investment bonds in the secondary market can be divided into three phases: 1. Early 2025 to mid-March saw a tight balance in the funding environment, leading to increased yields and wider credit spreads [31] 2. From mid-March to April, a shift occurred with marginal easing in the funding environment, resulting in lower yields and narrower credit spreads [31] 3. Since May, the implementation of interest rate cuts has led to a bullish market for urban investment bonds, with yields and spreads continuing to decline [31] Group 3: Debt Replacement Progress - As of June 25, 2025, 17,944 billion yuan of replacement debt has been disclosed, achieving 90% of the annual target, while special new bonds issued totaled 4,648 billion yuan [3][9] - The "exit platform" progress indicates that approximately 40% of financing platforms are expected to exit the financing platform sequence by the end of 2024 [3] Group 4: Outlook for the Second Half - The total amount of new bonds disclosed for 2025 reached 5,356 billion yuan, with 4,703 billion yuan allocated for new purposes, indicating potential support for net financing stability in the second half [4] - A significant amount of urban investment bonds, totaling at least 34,434 billion yuan, is set to mature in the second half of 2025, which will impact the market dynamics [4][22] Group 5: Challenges in Bond Allocation - The current challenge in urban investment bond allocation is the shrinking supply of high-yield assets, with only 14% of outstanding public non-perpetual urban investment bonds yielding over 2.2% as of June 20, 2025 [5] - Short-term urban investment bonds have seen yields and spreads compressed to historically low levels, while 4-5 year bonds still offer some spread opportunities for selection [5]