Dongxing Securities·2025-06-27 11:16Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the oil and petrochemical industry, indicating an expectation of performance that exceeds the market benchmark by more than 5% [2]. Core Insights - The oil service engineering sector is experiencing significant profitability growth due to high upstream capital expenditure in the global oil and gas industry, driven by improving demand and easing inflation pressures [4][5]. - Domestic oil and gas resource dependency is high, with consumption increasing annually, suggesting a strong potential for future demand growth that will drive upstream exploration and development [5][23]. - Global upstream oil and gas investments are projected to remain robust, with expected expenditures of $474 billion, $538 billion, and $590 billion from 2022 to 2024, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 18.2%, 13.5%, and 9.67% respectively [6][29]. - The report highlights that companies like CNOOC are expected to increase capital expenditures, which will further stimulate oil service engineering business volumes [7][36]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Economic Environment and Performance - Since 2024, the easing of inflation in the U.S. and gradual recovery of the domestic economy have positively impacted the profitability of the oil service engineering sector, with revenues reaching 310.84 billion yuan in 2024, a 4.7% increase year-on-year, and net profits of 10.916 billion yuan, up 10.79% [4][15]. - In Q1 2025, the sector achieved revenues of 63.406 billion yuan, a 4.08% increase year-on-year, with net profits of 2.713 billion yuan, reflecting a 20.77% growth [4][15]. Section 2: Future Demand and Capital Expenditure - China's crude oil production is projected to increase from 204.72 million tons in 2022 to 212.89 million tons in 2024, while imports are significantly higher, indicating a dependency ratio exceeding 250% [5][23]. - Natural gas production is also on the rise, with consumption reaching 394.49 billion cubic meters in 2023, suggesting a strong upward trend in demand [5][25]. - The report anticipates that domestic crude oil demand will rise to 17.10 million barrels per day in 2024, a 4.46% increase year-on-year [5][25]. Section 3: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with high growth potential, such as CNOOC and its subsidiaries, which are expected to benefit from increased capital expenditures and favorable market conditions [8][43]. - CNOOC's capital expenditure for 2025 is projected to be between 125 billion and 135 billion yuan, with expected revenue growth of 11% and net profit growth of 50.7% for its oil service engineering subsidiary [7][36].