银河期货棉系半年报：国际宏观变数大，低库存支撑棉价

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the case that the purchase of new cotton has a relatively limited boost to the market, if there is no obvious improvement in the demand side, cotton prices may weaken; if the demand side performs well, it will form a certain bullish drive for the market [5][50][57] - Considering the high uncertainty of macro - factors this year, with the expiration of the US global tariff extension in July and the Sino - US tariff extension in August, there may be great uncertainties. If the tariff issue eases, it will bring an optimistic impact on the market, and commodity prices may strengthen [5][57] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In the first half of the year, cotton prices were mainly affected by macro factors. Due to the lack of obvious changes in the fundamentals, cotton prices oscillated initially. In April, Trump's global tariff increase led to a pessimistic market outlook on the global economy, causing cotton prices to fall to around 12,400. Later, due to the easing of Trump's tariff attitude and better - than - expected Sino - US negotiations in Switzerland, cotton prices rebounded and then entered an oscillatory adjustment phase [4][9] - In the first half of the year, the fundamentals of US cotton changed little, and there were no obvious contradictions. The signing situation was acceptable. Although China's signing volume decreased significantly, the signing volume of other Southeast Asian countries increased significantly. Overall, US cotton prices oscillated within a range [4][9] 3.2 International Market - In the 2025/26 season, global cotton supply and consumption both decreased. Total supply decreased by 170,000 tons to 2.547 million tons, and total demand decreased by 70,000 tons to 2.563 million tons. Both are at medium levels over the years, and it is expected that there will be no obvious supply - demand contradiction in the global cotton market [9][52] - Currently, the El Niño index indicates neither a La Niña nor an El Niño phenomenon, and the probability of extreme weather in the future is expected to be small [9][52] 3.3 United States - US cotton production is slightly reduced compared to the previous year. According to the latest USDA production and sales forecast, the current US cotton production is expected to be 3.04 million tons. Although the drought situation has improved recently, the abandonment rate may increase later, which will affect US cotton production [14][53] - As of June 22, the cotton planting rate in 15 major cotton - growing states in the US was 92%, 1 percentage point slower than the same period last year and 3 percentage points slower than the average of the past five years. The good - to - excellent rate was 47%, 9 percentage points lower than the same period last year and the same as the five - year average [14] - The signing performance of US cotton is poor. As of June 12, the cumulative signing volume of US cotton was 2.64 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%; the cumulative shipment volume was 2.21 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3% [15] 3.4 Other Countries - As of June 16, 2025, the cotton planting area in India in the 2025/26 season was 3.125 million hectares, 214,000 hectares higher than the same period last year. As of the week of June 22, 2025, the weekly cotton listing volume in India was 174,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 501%; the cumulative cotton listing volume in the 2024/25 season was 4.9075 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5% [26] - As of the week from June 12 to June 18, 2025, the weekly rainfall in India's main cotton - growing areas (93.6%) was 60.6 mm, 22.2 mm higher than the normal level and 24 mm higher than the same period last year [26] - As of the week of June 21, the total cotton harvesting progress in Brazil (98%) was 4%, a month - on - month increase of 1.2 percentage points and 0.9 percentage points faster than the same period last year. The 2024/25 season's Brazilian cotton total production is expected to be 3.913 million tons, an increase of 8,000 tons from the previous month [29] 3.5 Domestic Market - In the first stage before the new cotton is listed, China's cotton supply may be tight due to the fast de - stocking of commercial inventory and the lowest import volume of cotton in the same period over the years. Although the demand is currently in the off - season, it is expected that Zhengzhou cotton prices will oscillate slightly stronger [32][54] - As of June 20, the cumulative sales volume of 2024 - season cotton was 6.12 million tons, and the sales progress was 91.7% [32] - As of mid - June, China's cotton commercial inventory was 3.12 million tons, and the Xinjiang inventory was 1.97 million tons. The export speed has been fast in recent months, and the commercial inventory is at a low level in the same period over the years [33] - In May 2025, China's cotton import volume was 34,500 tons, a record low in nearly 20 years. From January to May 2025, the cumulative import volume was 432,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 73.6% [33] - In May, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, hats, and knitted textiles in China were 122.5 billion yuan, and the cumulative retail sales from January to May were 613.8 billion yuan, at a high level in the same period over the years. In May, textile and clothing exports were 26.21 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 0.6% [34] - In the second stage, considering the increase in the cotton planting area in the 2025/26 season, the production is expected to be similar to or slightly higher than that in the 2024/25 season. The purchase price of new cotton may not be high, and its boost to the market may be limited. If the demand improves, it will have a bullish impact on cotton prices; otherwise, it will be bearish [47][54][55] 3.6 Market Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - Internationally, the supply - demand contradiction in the global cotton market is not obvious in the 2025/26 season. The production of US cotton may be affected by the abandonment rate, and the signing performance is poor. The future trading logic of US cotton will gradually shift to weather factors [52][53][54] - Domestically, before the new cotton is listed, Zhengzhou cotton prices are expected to oscillate slightly stronger. After that, if the demand side improves, it will have a bullish impact on cotton prices; otherwise, it will be bearish [54][55] - Strategy recommendations: It is expected that US cotton will mostly oscillate in the future, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate slightly stronger in the short term. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [6]