Soochow Securities·2025-06-27 11:50Core Conclusions - The automotive industry in H1 2025 showed resilience, with AI growth stocks outperforming expectations. The old-for-new policy effectively supported the sector, with various sub-sectors meeting overall expectations, although some underperformed [2][4] - For H2 2025, the investment strategy focuses on "breaking the old and establishing the new," suggesting a need to adapt to changing market conditions. The report emphasizes the importance of identifying cyclical alpha varieties and embracing the next industrial trends, particularly in smart technology and robotics [2][3] - The report recommends increasing the weight of dividend and quality stocks, highlighting specific companies such as Yutong Bus, China National Heavy Duty Truck, and Spring Power [2][6] Passenger Vehicle Sector Review and Outlook - The passenger vehicle sector experienced fluctuations in H1 2025, driven by AI applications and competitive pricing strategies. The sector saw significant price adjustments and market corrections, particularly in response to new policies and competitive pressures [12][15] - The total retail sales volume for passenger vehicles in the first five months of 2025 reached 8.36 million units, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%. The old-for-new policy and low base from the previous year contributed to this growth [25] - The forecast for total domestic retail sales in 2025 is 23.66 million units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.9%. The report anticipates a decline in growth rates in H2 compared to H1 [43] Electric Vehicle (EV) Sector Insights - The report predicts that the domestic demand for new energy vehicles (NEVs) will reach 14.32 million units in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 33%. The penetration rate of NEVs is expected to remain strong, although some challenges in consumer adoption and competition from traditional vehicles are noted [2][43] - The export volume of passenger vehicles in the first five months of 2025 totaled 1.99 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7.4%. The export of NEVs reached 790,000 units, showing a significant year-on-year growth of 57% [31] Stock Recommendations - The report suggests a shift in focus towards high-dividend and quality stocks for H2 2025, with specific recommendations including Yutong Bus, Fuyao Glass, and China National Heavy Duty Truck. Additionally, it highlights AI growth stocks such as Xpeng Motors and Ideal Auto as key players in the market [2][6][7] - The performance of selected stocks in H1 2025 showed a mixed outcome, with some exceeding expectations, such as Xpeng Motors and Horizon Robotics, while others like SAIC Motor and Desay SV fell short [4][5]