乐观氛围主导，煤焦强势运行

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views - Coke: As of the week ending June 27, the total daily coke output of independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 1.1197 million tons, a weekly decrease of 0.15 thousand tons. After the fourth round of coke price cuts on June 23, the profit per ton of coke for sample independent coking enterprises was - 46 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 23 yuan/ton. On the demand side, the daily hot - metal output of 247 steel mills was 2.4229 million tons, a slight weekly increase of 0.11 thousand tons, and the steel - mill profitability rate was 59.31%, unchanged from the previous week. The coke fundamentals have not worsened further, and upstream coking coal and policy expectations bring certain benefits. It is expected that coke will maintain a volatile upward trend in the near future, and attention should be paid to the coking coal output in July [5][33]. - Coking Coal: As of the week ending June 27, the daily output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines was 738 thousand tons, a decrease of 600 tons from the previous week and 35 thousand tons lower than the same period last year. In late June, some mines in the main production areas were shut down for rectification due to safety issues, but most are expected to resume production in the short term. From June 16 - 21, the cumulative customs clearance of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 4207 vehicles, a weekly increase of 374 vehicles. The total daily coke output of independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants decreased by 0.15 thousand tons week - on - week. With the previous negative factors being gradually realized, the phased contraction of coking coal supply and policy expectations in July may drive its rebound, but the supply issue still faces a factual test in July [6][34]. 3. Summary by Directory Industry News - From January to May, the steel industry's profit was 3.169 billion yuan. The total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size was 272.043 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1%. Among them, state - owned holding enterprises' profit decreased by 7.4%, joint - stock enterprises' profit decreased by 1.5%, foreign and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan - invested enterprises' profit increased by 0.3%, and private enterprises' profit increased by 3.4% [8]. - On June 27, the price of coking coal in the Linfen Anze market remained stable, with the ex - factory price of low - sulfur primary coking clean coal (A9, S0.5, V20, G85) being 1170 yuan/ton (cash and tax included) [9]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade flat - price) | 1220 yuan/ton | - 3.94% | - 8.96% | - 27.81% | - 40.20% | | Coke (Qingdao Port quasi - first - grade ex - warehouse) | 1140 yuan/ton | - 2.56% | - 6.56% | - 29.63% | - 41.54% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port Mongolian coal) | 865 yuan/ton | 0.00% | - 5.98% | - 26.69% | - 45.94% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Australian - produced) | 1200 yuan/ton | - 0.83% | - 5.51% | - 19.46% | - 42.31% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced) | 1250 yuan/ton | 0.00% | - 3.10% | - 18.30% | - 39.02% | [10] Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change (%) | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | - | 1421.5 | 2.52 | 1422.0 | 1389.0 | 28193 | 5398 | 53145 | 1846 | | Coking Coal | - | 847.5 | 4.89 | 848.0 | 820.5 | 1179647 | 308648 | 582668 | 18006 | [13] Related Charts The report provides charts on coke inventory (including 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel - mill coking plants, port, and total coke inventory), coking coal inventory (including mine - mouth, port, 247 sample steel - mill, and all - sample independent coking plant coking coal inventory), and other related charts such as Shanghai terminal wire - rod procurement volume, domestic steel - mill production, coal - washing plant production, and coking - plant operation [14][21][27]. Future Outlook - Coke: It is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend in the near future, and attention should be paid to the coking coal output in July to prevent the cost support from collapsing again [5][33]. - Coking Coal: The phased contraction of supply and policy expectations in July may drive its rebound, but the supply issue still faces a factual test in July, so close attention should be paid to the coking coal output in July [6][34].