宝城期货热轧卷板周度数据-20250627

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The supply - demand situation of hot - rolled coils has changed. The production of plate mills is stable, and the weekly output of hot - rolled coils has increased by 1.79 million tons week - on - week, remaining at a high level this year with relatively large supply pressure. Meanwhile, the demand toughness of hot - rolled coils has weakened, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 4.44 million tons week - on - week and low - frequency trading performance. Although the downstream cold - rolled production remains high, providing support for hot - rolled coil demand, the upcoming end of the Sino - US tariff "exemption period" may lead to the fermentation of external risks, and demand concerns still exist. Overall, the supply of hot - rolled coils remains stable at a high level, while demand has weakened, and fundamental contradictions have accumulated. The price of hot - rolled coils continues to be under pressure and operates in a low - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the tariff risks after the end of the "exemption period" [8]. 3. Summary by Directory Supply - Weekly output: The weekly output of hot - rolled coils is 327.24 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1.79 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.69 million tons, and a year - on - year increase of 5.39 million tons [2]. - Blast furnace capacity utilization rate: The blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 90.83%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.04 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 0.14 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 1.70 percentage points [2]. Demand - Apparent demand: The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils is 326.25 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 4.44 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.68 million tons, and a year - on - year increase of 1.59 million tons [2]. - Weekly output of cold - rolled coils: The weekly output of cold - rolled coils is 88.06 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.29 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.06 million tons, and a year - on - year increase of 1.86 million tons [2]. Inventory - Total inventory: The total inventory of hot - rolled coils is 341.16 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.99 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.35 million tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 71.64 million tons [2]. - In - plant inventory: The in - plant inventory of hot - rolled coils is 78.22 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1.70 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.20 million tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 11.78 million tons [2]. - Social inventory: The social inventory of hot - rolled coils is 262.94 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.71 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.15 million tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 59.86 million tons [2].