南华原木产业风险管理日报：07合约大幅减仓，保持强势-20250627

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The 07 main contract reduced its position by 4,803 lots today, closing at 819, up 0.37%. The 09 contract increased its position by 967 lots, closing at 791, down 0.38%. The spread between the 7 - 9 contracts reached a new high of 28 [3]. - With one trading day left for the 07 contract, it has significantly reduced its position, but the remaining position of 10,984 lots is still large. There is a possibility of significant position - reduction on Monday, which may cause large fluctuations in the market [3]. - The hedging profit window on the market is still open, while there is no profit for long - position holders to take delivery. Fundamentally, there are no obvious changes [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Log Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for logs is 740 - 820. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 16.28%, and its historical percentile over the past 3 years is 67.4% [2]. Log Hedging Strategy - Inventory Management: When log imports are high and inventory is at a high level, and there are concerns about price drops, for long - position exposure, it is recommended to short log futures (lg2509) to lock in profits and make up for production costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 800 - 820 [2]. - Procurement Management: When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on order conditions, for short - position exposure, it is recommended to buy log futures (lg2509) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 750 - 800 [2]. Core Contradictions - The 07 main contract reduced its position by 4,803 lots today, closing at 819, up 0.37%. The 09 contract increased its position by 967 lots, closing at 791, down 0.38%. The 7 - 9 spread reached a new high of 28. With one trading day left, the 07 contract has significantly reduced its position, but the remaining position is still large. There is a risk of large market fluctuations due to significant position - reduction on Monday [3]. Spot and Basis - Multiple types of log spot prices, basis, and related data are provided, including different specifications, ports, and their corresponding prices, price changes, and basis calculations [4][7]. Factors Affecting the Market - Positive Factors: Importers have the intention to jointly support prices due to continuous import losses; macro - policies are taking effect; the overall sentiment in the commodity market has improved [6]. - Negative Factors: Demand is weaker than expected and sales are slow; subsequent shipping volumes are expected to pick up [6]. Log Data Overview - Supply: The radiation pine import volume in May 2025 was 1.69 million m³, a month - on - month increase of 40,000 m³ and a year - on - year decrease of 2.3% [7]. - Inventory: As of June 20, 2025, the port inventory in China was 3.35 million m³, a week - on - week decrease of 100,000 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. The port inventory in Shandong was 1.99 million m³, a week - on - week decrease of 20,000 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 9.2%. The port inventory in Jiangsu was 1.109845 million m³, a week - on - week decrease of 23,277 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 34.2% [7]. - Demand: As of June 20, 2025, the average daily log outbound volume from ports was 63,600 m³, a week - on - week increase of 3,800 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 25.7%. The average daily outbound volume in Shandong was 34,000 m³, a week - on - week increase of 1,000 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 33.3%. The average daily outbound volume in Jiangsu was 22,600 m³, a week - on - week increase of 3,600 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 29.1% [7]. - Profit: As of June 27, 2025, the radiation pine import profit was - 46 yuan/m³, a week - on - week decrease of 1 yuan/m³. The spruce import profit was - 77 yuan/m³, with no week - on - week change [7].