原油周度报告：地缘冲突缓和，风险溢价快速回落-20250627

Report Summary Market Focus - Israel and Iran reached a ceasefire agreement. - Russia stated its willingness to support further production increases. - US President Trump said that the US will hold talks with Iran next week. [7] Key Data - US EIA crude oil inventories in Cushing, Oklahoma, for the week ending June 20 decreased by 464,000 barrels, compared to a decrease of 995,000 barrels in the previous week. - US EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending June 20 decreased by 5.836 million barrels, with an expected decrease of 797,000 barrels and a previous decrease of 11.473 million barrels. - US EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventories for the week ending June 20 were 237,000 barrels, compared to 230,000 barrels in the previous week. [7] Main View - This week, Israel and Iran reached a ceasefire agreement, causing the geopolitical risk premium of crude oil to decline rapidly. The conflict did not cause substantial losses to the crude oil supply, and oil prices basically returned to pre - conflict levels. - Looking ahead, as geopolitical tensions ease, the market focus shifts to the fundamentals of crude oil. There is an expectation of increased supply, but the actual increase is lower than the plan. The impact of further production increase on oil prices may be weaker than previous rounds. - On the demand side, with the arrival of the peak oil - using season in the Northern Hemisphere, there is an expectation of marginal improvement in crude oil consumption. Considering the complexity and uncertainty of geopolitics, short - term geopolitical factors may still cause fluctuations. - Overall, after the decline of the geopolitical risk premium, short - term oil prices lack a clear driver. It is expected that WTI crude oil will fluctuate around $65 per barrel next week. [8] Trading Strategy - It is recommended to focus on the range of $62 - $67 per barrel for WTI crude oil prices. [9] Multi - Empty Focus Multi - Party Factors - Expectation of demand improvement - Uncertainty of geopolitics [12] Empty - Party Factors - Expectation of OPEC+ production increase - Uncertainty of tariff policies [12] Macro Analysis Ceasefire Agreement and US - Iran Talks - Israel and Iran reached a ceasefire agreement on June 24. - Trump said that the US will hold talks with Iran next week and may sign an agreement, also hinting at possible relaxation of sanctions on Iranian oil. - At the beginning of the conflict, concerns about supply disruptions pushed up oil prices, but the actual impact on supply was limited. The current ceasefire agreement is fragile, and attention should be paid to the US - Iran talks. [13] Tariff Policy Uncertainty - The EU is preparing more tariff counter - measures. - The prospects of Japan - US tariff negotiations are unclear. - With the "tariff deadline" on July 9 approaching, tariff policies still have great uncertainty. [16] Fed Rate - Cut Expectations - Fed officials have hinted at a possible rate cut in July. - There are significant differences within the Fed on how to balance inflation and economic growth. - Powell said that tariffs will affect the economy, and the market's expectation of a rate cut has increased. The probability of a July rate cut has risen to 40%, and the expected total rate - cut amplitude for the remaining four meetings this year has increased from 45 basis points to 60 basis points. [19] OPEC and IEA Reports - OPEC maintained its global crude oil demand growth expectations for 2025 and 2026 and economic growth forecasts. - IEA expected sufficient oil supply in 2025, lowered demand growth expectations, and raised supply growth expectations. Overall, there is an expectation of oil supply surplus. [20] Data Analysis Supply - OPEC's crude oil production decreased by 66,000 barrels per day in April 2025 compared to the previous month. Production declines were mainly from Iran, Nigeria, and Venezuela. With the implementation of the production increase plan, OPEC production is expected to gradually recover. [21] - US domestic crude oil production increased slightly by 400 barrels to 13.435 million barrels per day in the week ending June 20. However, due to the decline in oil prices and profit pressure, the increase in shale oil production may be limited. [23] - The total number of US oil rigs was 438 in the week ending June 20, a decrease of 1 from the previous period. The decline rate has slowed down, and it is expected to stabilize with the recovery of oil prices. [25] Demand - US crude oil production - derived demand decreased by 361,000 barrels per day in the week ending June 20, while gasoline demand increased by 350,000 barrels per day. - The US refinery utilization rate increased to 94.7% in the week ending June 20, and it is expected to remain stable. - The refinery utilization rate of 16 European countries increased to 80.32% in May, and it is expected to continue to rise steadily. - As of June 26, the operating rate of domestic main refineries in China increased to 80.74%, and that of local independent refineries was 57.24%. Main refineries are expected to continue to increase their operating rates, while local refineries may reduce their operating rates due to profit considerations. - As of June 27, the comprehensive refining profit of domestic main refineries was 1,344.45 yuan per ton, and that of local independent refineries was 376.96 yuan per ton. High profits will stimulate the operating rate of main refineries. [31][32][34][40][45] Inventory - US EIA crude oil inventories decreased by 5.836 million barrels in the week ending June 20, and strategic petroleum reserve inventories increased. It is expected that inventories will continue to decline. - US EIA crude oil inventories in Cushing decreased by 464,000 barrels in the week ending June 20, and gasoline inventories decreased by 2.07 million barrels as of June 6. [49][53] Crack Spread - As of June 25, the US crude oil crack spread was $20.04 per barrel, showing a slight decline but ending the previous downward trend, indicating an improvement in gasoline consumption. [54] 后市研判 - This week, after the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, the geopolitical risk premium of crude oil declined rapidly. Oil prices basically returned to pre - conflict levels. - Looking ahead, with the easing of geopolitical tensions, the market focus shifts to fundamentals. Supply is expected to increase, but the actual increase is lower than the plan. Demand is expected to improve marginally with the arrival of the peak season. - Short - term geopolitical factors may still cause fluctuations, and short - term oil prices may have two - way fluctuations in a single day. Overall, short - term oil prices lack a clear driver, and it is expected that WTI crude oil will fluctuate around $65 per barrel next week. [57]