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玻璃纯碱产业风险管理日报-20250627
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-06-27 12:38

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Views - Glass demand remains weakly expected, with low prices but lack of drivers and no unplanned cold repair expectations. If low prices persist, attention should be paid to the increase in cold repair expectations and the sustainability of speculative sentiment. Although the glass valuation is relatively low, short - term fundamental drivers are limited [2]. - The expectation of oversupply in the soda ash market remains consistent, and there are still new production capacities planned in the long - term. The cost is decreasing. Currently, maintenance has a very weak impact on the futures market, and cost support is insufficient. Further decline in the futures price requires a decrease in the spot price, and the driving force comes from a new round of production cuts on the demand side or further inventory accumulation [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for glass is 900 - 1100, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 26.75% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 72.2%. The monthly price range forecast for soda ash is 1000 - 1250, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.12% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 17.0% [1]. Hedging Strategies - For glass inventory management, when the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, it is recommended to short glass futures (FG2509) at a 50% hedging ratio with an entry point of 1050, and sell call options (FG509 C1100) at a 50% hedging ratio with an entry range of 30 - 40. For soda ash inventory management, short soda ash futures (SA2509) at a 50% hedging ratio with an entry point of 1250, and sell call options (SA509 C1200) at a 50% hedging ratio with an entry range of 30 - 40 [1]. Core Contradictions - Glass: Demand is weakly expected, prices are low but lack drivers, and there are no unplanned cold repair expectations. Soda ash: There is a consistent expectation of oversupply, new production capacities in the long - term, and cost reduction [2]. 利多 and 利空解读 - Glass - Bullish factors: Low prices may stimulate short - term speculative sentiment; if low prices persist, cold repair expectations may gradually increase; mid - stream inventory is relatively low. Bearish factors: There is still ignition expectation on the supply side, actual demand is weak, and overall social inventory is high [2]. - Soda ash - Bullish factors: Low prices may lead to a phased improvement in manufacturers' order - signing; high export levels relieve domestic oversupply pressure. Bearish factors: Photovoltaic production has continuous kiln - mouth blockages, with an expected weakening of rigid demand; social inventory is at an absolute historical high; cost support is insufficient [2]. Price and Spread Data - Glass: On June 27, 2025, the glass 05 contract price was 1121 (up 8 or 0.72% from the previous day), the 09 contract was 1019 (up 3 or 0.3%), and the 01 contract was 1077 (up 4 or 0.37%). The 5 - 9 month spread was 102 (up 5), the 9 - 1 month spread was - 58 (down 1), and the 1 - 5 month spread was - 44 (down 4). The 05 contract basis in Shahe was 3 (down 8.8), and in Hubei was - 53 (up 54). The 09 contract basis in Shahe was 105.2 (down 3.8), and in Hubei was - 16 (up 1) [3][5]. - Soda ash: On June 27, 2025, the soda ash 05 contract price was 1215 (up 7 or 0.58% from the previous day), the 09 contract was 1196 (up 16 or 1.36%), and the 01 contract was 1192 (up 20 or 1.71%). The 5 - 9 month spread was 19 (down 9 or 32.14%), the 9 - 1 month spread was 4 (down 4 or 50%), and the 1 - 5 month spread was - 23 (up 13 or - 36.11%). The Shahe heavy - alkali basis was 18 (down 16), and the Qinghai heavy - alkali basis was - 236 (down 16) [7]. Spot Price Data - Glass: The average spot price of glass in Shahe on June 27, 2025, was 1124.2 (down 0.8 from the previous day). The prices in different regions remained stable [6]. - Soda ash: The heavy - alkali and light - alkali spot prices in different regions remained stable on June 27, 2025 [8].