农产品日报-20250627

Report Industry Investment Ratings - 豆一: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - 豆粕: ★★★ [1] - 豆油: ★★★ [1] - 棕榈油: ★★★ [1] - 菜粕: ★★★ [1] - 菜油: ★★★ [1] - 玉米: ★★★ [1] - 生猪: ★☆☆, representing a bias towards long/short, with a driving force for price increase/decrease but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - 鸡蛋: ★☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The prices of various agricultural products are affected by multiple factors such as weather, supply and demand, and policy. The short - term market trends are mostly in a state of shock, and long - term trends need to be judged based on different factors such as biodiesel development and policy intentions [2][3][4] Summaries According to Related Catalogs Soybean - Domestic soybeans continue to decline. Imported soybean auctions have all failed. US soybeans are weak due to favorable short - term weather and the market is waiting for the planting area report at the end of the month. There is little remaining domestic soybean at the grass - roots level, and the policy side is conducting auctions to supplement supply. Short - term attention should be paid to the guidance of the US soybean area report and weather conditions [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - As of June 24, about 12% of US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, showing improvement. In the next two weeks, the weather in most US soybean - growing areas is favorable for growth. Domestic spot prices have continued to fall by 30 - 50 yuan/ton, and soybean meal inventory in oil mills has increased. Five domestic large enterprises have jointly purchased 30,000 tons of Argentine soybean meal. The soybean meal market is currently in a state of shock. The US Department of Agriculture will release the planting area report at 00:00 on July 1 [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The soybean and palm oil futures are oscillating and waiting for the planting area report at the end of the month. In the short term, the domestic soybean market still faces a large arrival pressure, and the procurement volume in the fourth quarter is relatively low. In the long term, the development of biodiesel can support the vegetable oil market, so a long - term strategy of buying on dips for vegetable oils is recommended [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The near - and far - month contracts of rapeseed futures have mixed performance but are generally weak. Rainfall in Canadian rapeseed - growing areas has improved soil humidity. The old - crop rapeseed inventory is tight, and there are many uncertainties in new - crop weather. It is recommended to change the short - term strategy from bearish to wait - and - see [6] Corn - Dalian corn futures continue to oscillate, with a divergence between futures and spot prices (spot is strong and futures are weak). The overall contradiction in the corn market is not significant. The expected increase in state - reserve auctions suppresses the increase in corn prices. North port inventories are decreasing, and south port inventories are slightly increasing. The operating rate of starch deep - processing enterprises may continue to decline. The corn futures market is expected to oscillate in the near future [7] Live Pigs - Live pig futures are weakly adjusted with reduced positions, and spot prices have increased in various regions. In the medium term, due to the continuous increase in the inventory of breeding sows and the number of newborn piglets, the pressure on future hog slaughter is large, and the room for pig price rebound is limited. In the long term, the policy aims to stabilize pig prices, and attention should be paid to when the production capacity reaches an inflection point [8] Eggs - Egg futures contracts show different performances within the day, generally oscillating in the previously formed low - level range. Spot prices are stable. Since the number of chick replenishments from January to April this year was the highest in the same period in recent years, it is believed that the production capacity is still being released. The culling of old hens is insufficient, and the culling age is relatively high. The long - term egg price cycle has not bottomed out, and the strategy of shorting on rallies for futures prices continues [9]