棉花产业?险管理?报

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Recently, Sino-US policies are temporarily stable, but the crude oil price fluctuates greatly due to the Israel-Iran war. During the off-season of demand, the rebound momentum of cotton prices is slightly weak. However, due to the small quantity of imported cotton, the inventory of Xinjiang cotton is decreasing rapidly. It is expected that the supply and demand may become tight by the end of the year, and the downside space of cotton prices is narrowing. In the short term, the pressure around 13,800 should be monitored above, and the support around 13,000 below. Attention should also be paid to the inventory reduction speed of cotton during the off-season [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cotton Price Forecast - The predicted monthly price range of cotton is 13,000 - 13,800, with a current volatility (20-day rolling) of 0.062 and a current volatility historical percentile (3 years) of 0.0597 [3] Risk Management Strategies Inventory Management - For enterprises with high inventory worried about cotton price decline, they can short Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) to lock in profits and make up for production costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 13,600 - 13,800. They can also sell call options (CF509C13800) to collect premiums and reduce costs, and lock in the spot selling price if the cotton price rises, with a hedging ratio of 75% and an entry range of 200 - 250 [3] Procurement Management - For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory and wishing to purchase according to orders, they can buy Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 13,000 - 13,200. They can also sell put options (CF509P13000) to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the spot cotton purchase price if the cotton price falls, with a hedging ratio of 75% and an entry range of 100 - 150 [3] Market Analysis Bullish Factors - Affected by high tariffs, this year's cotton import volume has decreased significantly, and there is no reserve cotton sold. Although the output of Xinjiang cotton is high, the inventory is decreasing rapidly, and the spot basis remains strong. As of June 15, the total industrial and commercial inventory of cotton in China was 4.057 million tons [5] Bearish Factors - In the 24/25 season, the processing cost of new cotton in northern Xinjiang is mostly concentrated around 15,000 yuan/ton, and there is still some new cotton not hedged. The downstream is in the traditional off-season, with slow sales, reduced load of spinning and weaving mills, general procurement enthusiasm for raw materials, strong wait-and-see sentiment, and continuous accumulation of finished product inventory [5] Futures Price - Cotton 01 closed at 13,765, up 100 or 0.73%; Cotton 05 closed at 13,750, up 100 or 0.73%; Cotton 09 closed at 13,760, up 40 or 0.29%;棉纱 01 closed at 20,055, up 35 or 0.17%;棉纱 05 closed at 0, down 20,050 or -100%;棉纱 09 closed at 20,105, up 45 or 0.22% [5][6] Price Spread - Cotton basis was 1,349, up 49; Cotton 01 - 05 spread was 15, unchanged; Cotton 05 - 09 spread was -10, up 60; Cotton 09 - 01 spread was -5, down 60; Cotton - yarn spread was 6,365, down 30; Domestic - foreign cotton spread was 1,294, down 14; Domestic - foreign yarn spread was -627, unchanged [6] Price Index - CCI 3128B was 15,109, up 89 or 0.59%; CCI 2227B was 13,145, up 60 or 0.46%; CCI 2129B was 15,378, up 60 or 0.39%; FCI Index S was 14,007, up 92 or 0.66%; FCI Index M was 13,818, up 92 or 0.67%; FCI Index L was 13,588, up 93 or 0.69% [7]