南华期货底部震荡

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The pulp futures contract rebounded slightly today but remained weak. The demand side is in the traditional off - season, with downstream paper manufacturers' inventories piling up and low procurement willingness. The supply side shows high - level fluctuations in imports and falling import prices, especially a severe oversupply of hardwood pulp. The next demand peak is expected to start in mid - August, and large - scale restocking may occur after July. The pulp price is under downward pressure in a weak supply - demand environment, and the pulp futures are unlikely to have a continuous upward trend but have limited downside space [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Content Price Forecast and Hedging Strategy - The monthly price range of pulp is predicted to be between 4900 - 5400 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 24.32% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 79.5% [2]. - For inventory management, when the softwood pulp inventory is high, enterprises can short pulp futures (sp2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 5200 - 5300 yuan/ton to lock in profits and cover production costs [2]. - For procurement management, when paper manufacturers' inventory is low, they can buy pulp futures (sp2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 4900 - 5100 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs [2]. Core Contradiction Analysis - The pulp futures are weak due to weak demand in the off - season and high - level supply. The next demand peak is expected in mid - August, and large - scale restocking may be after July. The pulp price faces downward pressure, and the futures are unlikely to rise continuously but have limited downside [3]. 利多 and 利空 Factors - The potential bullish factors include a significant strengthening of the US dollar exchange rate and the implementation of macro - policies [4]. - The bearish factor is the continuous decline of overseas pulp quotes. The report also lists the price changes of various pulp types and paper products, showing a general downward trend in pulp prices [5][7].