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2025年一季度国内经济回顾及中期展望：稳固基础，波动改善
Shanxi Securities·2025-06-27 13:05

Economic Growth and Trends - China's GDP growth rate for Q1 2025 is 5.4%, maintaining the same level as Q4 2024, driven primarily by consumption and exports[12] - The contribution of final consumption expenditure to GDP growth in Q1 2025 was 2.8%, up from 1.6% in the previous quarter[13] - The nominal GDP growth rate for Q1 2025 was 4.6%, with a GDP deflator index growth rate of -0.8%, indicating weak domestic demand[13] Policy Measures - The government is implementing more proactive fiscal policies, with a focus on increasing the scale of deficits, special bonds, and treasury bonds[29] - In Q1 2025, general public budget expenditure and government fund expenditure grew by 5.6% year-on-year, with general public budget expenditure increasing by 4.2%[29] - Monetary policy remains moderately loose, with a 0.5% reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and a 0.1% decrease in the 7-day reverse repurchase rate announced on May 7, 2025[39] Consumption and Investment - Retail sales in Q1 2025 showed a year-on-year growth of 4.6%, with service retail outperforming goods retail, indicating a shift towards service consumption[46] - Infrastructure investment in Q1 2025 grew by 11.5% year-on-year, supported by the accelerated issuance of special bonds[53] - Manufacturing investment growth in Q1 2025 was 9.1%, with significant increases in equipment purchases and high-tech industry investments[64] Export and External Environment - Short-term resilience in exports is noted, but uncertainties remain due to fluctuating U.S. tariff policies and global economic slowdown[2] - The net export contribution to GDP growth in Q1 2025 was 2.1%, reflecting a strong performance despite external challenges[13] Price Stability - Consumer prices (CPI) and producer prices (PPI) remain low, with the government aiming for a moderate recovery in prices as a key policy goal[6] - The overall price level is expected to stabilize, but the relationship between supply and demand needs further improvement to support price recovery[6]