白糖产业风险管理日报-20250627

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The current production progress in Brazil is slightly slow, but the high sugar - alcohol ratio leads to a high expectation in the overseas market for a decline in Brazil's new harvest season output. The market has high expectations for increased production in India and Thailand's 25/26 harvest seasons, which suppresses sugar prices. The profit window for out - of - quota imports in China is open, and the domestic market is slightly stronger, but the rebound strength may be limited [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Forecast and Risk Management - The predicted monthly price range of sugar is 5600 - 5800, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 7.17% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 3.1% [3] - For inventory management when the finished product inventory is high and there are concerns about sugar price drops, it is recommended to short Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 5800 - 5850, and sell call options (SR509C5900) with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 30 - 40 to lock in profits and reduce costs [3] - For procurement management when the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is to be based on orders, it is recommended to buy Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 5630 - 5680, and sell put options (SR509P5600) with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 30 - 40 to lock in procurement costs [3] Market Analysis Bullish Factors - As of the end of May, Guangxi's cumulative sugar sales reached 464.53 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 53.71 million tons, and the sales - to - production ratio was 71.85%, a year - on - year increase of 5.39 percentage points [5] - The National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories in India (NFCSF) predicts that India's sugar ending inventory in the 2024/25 harvest season will be between 4.8 and 5 million tons, sufficient to meet domestic sugar consumption from October to November 2025 [5] - China has suspended imports of Thai syrup and premixed powder [5] - From the beginning of the 2025/26 harvest season to the first half of May, the cumulative cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 76.714 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.466 million tons (20.24%); sugar production was 3.989 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.17 million tons (22.68%) [5] - In May, the total import volume of syrup and premixed powder was 64,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 150,700 tons, the second - lowest in the same period in the past five years [5] - Brazil has increased the mandatory ethanol blending ratio in gasoline from 27% to 30% and the biodiesel ratio in diesel from 14% to 15% [6] Bearish Factors - In the 2024/25 harvest season, Guangxi's cumulative cane crushing volume was 48.5954 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.5847 million tons, but sugar production was 6.465 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 283,600 tons [7] - Analysis agency JOB predicts that Brazil's sugar production in the 25/26 harvest season will increase by 5% to 46 million tons [7] - Thailand's sugar production in the 24/25 harvest season is expected to increase to 10.39 million tons [7] - India's monsoon has arrived 3 - 4 days earlier than usual, and the sugar production in the 2025/26 harvest season is expected to strongly recover to about 35 million tons [7] - In May, sugar imports were 350,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 333,100 tons, and the out - of - quota import profit window is open [7] Market Data Basis Changes - On June 26, 2025, the basis of Nanning - SR01 was 479, with a daily decrease of 14 and a weekly decrease of 15; the basis of Kunming - SR01 was 289, with a daily increase of 6 and a weekly decrease of 40 [8] Futures Prices and Spreads - On June 27, 2025, the closing price of SR01 was 5600, with a daily decline of 0.02% and a weekly increase of 0.48%; the closing price of SR03 was 5573, with a daily decline of 0.04% and a weekly increase of 0.38% [9] Spot Prices and Regional Spreads - On June 27, 2025, the price of Nanning sugar was 6090, with a daily increase of 10 and a weekly increase of 60; the price of Liuzhou sugar was 6110, with a daily increase of 10 and a weekly increase of 55 [10] Sugar Import Price Changes - On June 27, 2025, the in - quota import price of Brazilian sugar was 4450, with a daily increase of 57 and a weekly decrease of 26; the out - of - quota import price was 5653, with a daily increase of 75 and a weekly decrease of 33 [11]