苹果产业风险管理日报-20250627

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the given content. 2) Core Viewpoints - The current market is in the apple fruit expansion period, with few trading points on the disk. It is highly likely that the market will maintain a volatile pattern from June to August. Attention should be paid to the release of tri - party bagging data and the opening price of early - maturing apples. The opening price of early - maturing Fuji apples is the same as last year, but the yield of this variety is relatively small [4]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the apple market. Bullish factors include low inventory in production areas and unstable weather in production areas that may lead to a large reduction in yield. Bearish factors are that the overall reduction in yield is less than expected based on bagging conditions, and the peak season of seasonal fruits has an impact on apple sales [5]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Apple Price Forecast and Strategy - Price Range Forecast: The predicted monthly price range of apples is 7300 - 7900, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.5% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 8.6% [3]. - Risk Management Strategies: - For those worried about a high - yield of new apples and low purchase prices, with a long spot position, it is recommended to short apple futures (AP2510) to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 7600 - 7650 [3]. - For those worried about a decline in old - crop apple inventory, a reduction in new - crop apple yield, and high purchase prices, with a short spot position, it is recommended to buy apple futures (AP2510) at present to lock in purchase costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 7350 - 7450 [3]. Apple Futures and Spot Price Changes - Futures Prices: On June 27, 2025, the closing prices of AP01, AP03, AP04, etc. showed different daily and weekly changes. For example, AP01 closed at 7594, with a daily decline of 0.39% and a weekly increase of 0.03% [6]. - Spot Prices: The prices of various apple varieties such as Qixia First - and Second - grade 80, Luochuan Semi - commercial 70 remained unchanged on that day [6]. - Other Indicators: The disk profit was - 709, with a daily decline of 2.61% and a weekly decline of 2.48%. The delivery theoretical price was 8600, remaining unchanged [6]. Apple Inventory - National Cold - Storage Inventory: As of June 27, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory was 106.91 (a decrease of 9.58 compared to the previous period), and on June 26, 2025, it was 100.07 (a decrease of 8.76 compared to the previous period) [8]. - Regional Storage Ratios: The storage ratios in Shandong, Shaanxi, Gansu and other regions showed different degrees of decline [8]. - Wholesale Market Arrival Volume: The arrival volumes at Guangdong Chalong, Guangdong Jiangmen, and Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale markets increased compared to the previous period [8].