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国防科技行业2025年度中期投资策略:强军胜战
Changjiang Securities·2025-06-27 13:01

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the military industry sector's investment theme has shifted from order-driven growth to performance-driven growth during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with a focus on EPS growth as the main driver for long-term stock price increases [2][5][23] - The report highlights significant growth potential in the military sector, with domestic defense spending still having a 20% gap compared to 2% of GDP, and military trade share potentially increasing from 6% to 10%-20%, indicating a growth opportunity of 60%-230% [5][41][43] - The report emphasizes the importance of new models, aftermarket services, and military-to-civilian transitions as key growth areas in the traditional aviation sector, with specific attention to the C919 aircraft's production ramp-up and the autonomy of engine manufacturing [6][48][49] Group 2 - The report identifies ammunition consumption as a key investment area, with a focus on the lifecycle of platforms, training consumption, and strategic reserves, indicating a robust demand recovery in the defense sector [7][20] - The military trade segment is seen as a second growth curve for the sector, with a focus on main battle equipment, unmanned systems, and radar exports, driven by geopolitical conflicts and the need for enhanced national security [8][28][60] - The report outlines four emerging investment themes with high potential returns: low-altitude economy, commercial aerospace, deep-sea technology, and controllable nuclear fusion, each expected to see significant market growth in the coming years [9][34][58]