Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - Currently, the industry is in a state of supply - demand imbalance with continuously falling lithium carbonate prices. The recycling end's industry operating rate is generally low, and the proportion of recycling end output in total lithium carbonate output is expected to decline in 2025. The future production plans of recycling enterprises are greatly affected by scrap prices, and short - term capacity utilization will not increase significantly [2]. - With the improvement of power battery technology and extended battery life, the number of retired batteries is expected to gradually increase starting in 2027, and the arrival of the retirement wave may be postponed [2]. - After the cancellation of mandatory energy storage allocation by Document 136, energy storage demand has shifted from policy - driven to market - driven, and from cost - oriented to more focus on comprehensive performance, which is conducive to promoting product innovation in energy storage enterprises and the healthy development of the industry [2][8]. - The lithium carbonate industry has a high and fast acceptance of futures tools, with many enterprises conducting futures hedging and basis point pricing, and some excellent enterprises exploring option - embedded trading [3]. - All technical routes of solid - state batteries have different technical difficulties, and there are currently no good solutions, so the development of solid - state batteries requires a long - term perspective [3]. Company - Specific Summaries A Enterprise - Battery Recycling - The enterprise is engaged in the recycling of lithium iron phosphate waste batteries with a production capacity of 11,000 tons. Since April this year, the production line has been basically shut down due to the decline in lithium carbonate prices [5]. - The enterprise mainly purchases black powder as raw material, and the current spot market for black powder has weak trading. The yield of producing lithium carbonate from battery powder is about 92%, and from pole piece powder is about 95%. The sources of black powder are mainly in the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, and Xinxiang, Henan [5]. - The cash processing cost of the wet - process production line is about 15,000 yuan/ton, with a current loss of 3,000 - 5,000 yuan/ton; the processing cost of the crushing production line is between 1,000 - 1,500 yuan/ton depending on local electricity prices, barely maintaining the break - even point [5]. - The future cost optimization space lies in the utilization of iron phosphate, enterprise scale, and the layout of the entire industrial chain by large - scale recycling enterprises [5]. - Currently, about 90% of lithium iron phosphate recycling production lines and 40% - 50% of ternary recycling production lines in the industry are shut down. It is expected that the recycling end's production capacity will increase year - on - year this year, but the actual output will decrease [6]. - The enterprise's methods to deal with the shortage of raw material supply are to develop new raw materials through technological advantages and cooperate with large cell and battery manufacturers [6]. - It is expected that the proportion of lithium extraction from recycling in lithium carbonate production will increase from 10% to 20% - 30% around 2027, but it is difficult for the share of lithium extraction from recycling to exceed 50% in 2030 [6]. B Enterprise - Battery and Materials - The company's business scope covers lithium mines, lithium carbonate production, lithium - battery materials, energy storage, and recycling. It has four lithium mine resources, and the Tong'an porcelain mine has a relatively high grade among domestic mica mines. The company plans to process 1.5% grade raw ore to 2.5% for subsequent lithium extraction to reduce lithium slag production [7]. - The enterprise plans a lithium carbonate production capacity of 30,000 tons/year. The first - phase 10,000 - ton capacity was officially put into production in July 2023, and the remaining 20,000 - ton capacity will be put into production after further cost reduction. The output in 2024 was about 6,000 tons, and it is expected to be 8,000 tons in 2025. 50% of the lithium ore comes from its own mines, and 50% from external sources. The enterprise plans to reduce production costs by extracting by - products rubidium and cesium [7]. - The enterprise has technical advantages in pole pieces and electrodes. Its lithium - battery business is mainly PACK, not involving cells. In terms of battery technology routes, nickel - hydrogen batteries have advantages in specific scenarios but are difficult to replace lithium - ion batteries as the mainstream. The enterprise believes that solid - state batteries still need time to be fully industrialized and is currently developing dry - electrode technology for solid - state batteries [7]. - After the cancellation of mandatory energy storage allocation, the independent energy storage power station has a development opportunity. The enterprise is actively expanding relevant businesses in Hebei, Shandong, Guangdong, Inner Mongolia and other regions [8]. C Enterprise - Battery Recycling - The initial annual production capacity of lithium carbonate of the enterprise is 4,000 tons, and it has under - construction production capacities of 65,000 tons of nickel phosphate, cobalt phosphate, and manganese phosphate, 15,000 tons of iron phosphate, and 12,000 tons of battery - grade lithium carbonate. The first - phase of the new production base is under construction with a 15,000 - ton electric carbon production capacity, and the second and third phases are planned for 15,000 tons of electric carbon and lithium hydroxide production capacity, as well as a 100,000 - ton iron phosphate production capacity [10]. - The enterprise has its own innovative technology, and its products can be directly used for futures delivery, having a cost advantage compared with similar enterprises. Currently, due to over - capacity and the concentration of consumer waste batteries in traders, the raw material procurement cost has increased. The enterprise's production cost is showing a downward trend, but the space for further cost reduction is limited [10]. - The enterprise actively uses derivative tools to deal with the decline in lithium carbonate prices, is one of the first enterprises to participate in lithium carbonate futures delivery, and widely uses strategies such as basis trading and option - embedded trading [10]. - It is expected that the number of retired batteries will gradually increase starting in 2027. Currently, the recycling raw materials are still mainly factory waste. After the national policy to liberalize the import of overseas black powder on July 1, 2023, it is expected to increase the supply of waste materials for recycling enterprises [11]. - Due to intense competition in the cell industry and a significant decline in cell costs, there is no obvious advantage in battery echelon utilization, and the market prefers to directly purchase new batteries [12].
格林大华期货碳酸锂调研纪要（一）
Ge Lin Qi Huo·2025-06-27 13:11