玉米看涨预期基本，兑现等待政策指引，生猪供给增量预期不减，交易修复逻辑，鸡蛋季节上涨预期仍存，整体或先扬后抑

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Corn: The bullish expectation of corn has basically been fulfilled, and it is waiting for policy guidance. The current futures market has basically reached the expected price range, and the future market will be affected by factors such as policies, supply and demand, and consumption [6][7][20]. - Pig: The supply of pigs is expected to increase, and the market is trading the logic of basis repair. The supply of pigs will increase in the second half of the year, and the price will be affected by factors such as supply, demand, and policies [9][10][55]. - Eggs: There is still an expectation of a seasonal increase in egg prices, but the overall trend may be up first and then down. The supply pressure of eggs is obvious, and the price will be affected by factors such as supply, demand, and consumption seasons [15][16][86]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Corn 3.1.1 Market Review in the First Half of the Year - Spot market: The supply - demand pattern of the corn spot market tightened in the first half of the year, and the price fluctuated upward with the center of gravity shifting up. As of June 27, the FOB price of corn at Jinzhou Port was 2380 yuan/ton, a 16% increase from the beginning of the year [6]. - Futures market: The bullish sentiment in the corn futures market was gradually fulfilled in the first half of the year, and the futures price oscillated upward. As of June 27, the closing price of the main 2509 contract was 2384 yuan/ton, a 4.6% increase from the beginning of the year [6]. 3.1.2 Strategy Review The trading strategy proposed in the 2025 breeding industry annual report has been verified by the market, and the current futures price has basically fulfilled the bullish expectation [7]. 3.1.3 Variety Views - Macro logic: Internationally, the macro - driving force is gradually weakening; domestically, it is mainly reflected in industrial policies, especially import policy orientation [20]. - Industry logic: It has entered the passive inventory - building cycle, and attention should be paid to policies such as directional rice/imported corn auctions and grain import policies [20]. - Supply - demand logic: Supply: Globally, the corn supply situation is tightening, and there is still supply pressure in the US. Domestically, there is still a gap between production and demand in the long - term, and the pricing logic of substitutes remains unchanged. Consumption: Feed consumption is rigid, and industrial consumption is relatively stable [20]. - Variety view: In the short - term, the spot market is stable and slightly strong; in the medium - term, it may maintain a stable and slightly strong pattern, but the upside space may be limited; in the long - term, it maintains the pricing logic of import substitution + planting cost [20]. - Trading strategy: Long - term wide - range operation; medium - term low - buying thinking; short - term test the upper pressure of the range [20]. 3.2 Pig 3.2.1 Market Review in the First Half of the Year - Spot market: The supply of the pig spot market increased in the first half of the year, and the price fluctuated downward. As of June 27, the ex - factory price of pigs in Henan was 14.9 yuan/kg, a 9% decrease from the beginning of the year [9]. - Futures market: The futures market fulfilled the downward expectation in advance and then traded the logic of basis repair. As of June 27, the closing price of the main 2509 contract was 14005 yuan/ton, a 1.8% decrease from the beginning of the year [9]. 3.2.2 Strategy Review The main trading logic proposed in the 2025 breeding industry annual report has been verified by the market, and the strategy review effect is good [10]. 3.2.3 Market Views - Macro logic: Domestically, pay attention to the interaction between CPI and pig prices and industrial policy orientation [53]. - Industry logic: After African swine fever, the normalization of diseases has led to significant fluctuations in pig prices. The process of large - scale concentration in the breeding end is not over [54]. - Supply - demand logic: Supply: In 2025, the supply of pigs will enter an upward cycle, and the supply in the second half of the year will still increase. Demand: The consumption of pork will gradually increase in the second half of the year, and the relative increment of supply and demand in the fourth - quarter seasonal consumption peak is the key driving force for the long - short game [55]. - Market view: In the short - term, there are both supports and pressures for pig prices; in the medium - term, the price in the third quarter depends on the release of weight pressure; in the long - term, the supply of pigs will continue to increase, and the profit of the breeding end in the fourth quarter depends on the contribution of weight to supply [56][57]. - Operation suggestion: Long - term short - selling thinking; medium - term wide - range operation around the expected support and pressure of spot prices; short - term trading the logic of basis repair driven by weight reduction [58]. 3.3 Eggs 3.3.1 Market Review in the First Half of the Year - Spot market: The supply pressure of the egg spot market was obvious in the first half of the year, and the price dropped significantly. As of June 27, the spot price of eggs in Handan, Hebei was 2.56 yuan/jin, a 38% decrease from the beginning of the year [15]. - Futures market: The bearish expectation of the egg futures market was gradually fulfilled, and the futures price broke through and fell. As of June 27, the closing price of the main 2508 contract was 3543 yuan/500KG, an 8% decrease from the beginning of the year [15]. 3.3.2 Strategy Review The trading strategy proposed in the 2025 breeding industry annual report has been verified by the market, and the current futures price has basically fulfilled the bearish expectation [16]. 3.3.3 Variety Views - Macro logic: Domestically, pay attention to raw material prices and CPI changes, and pay attention to the impact of meat and vegetable prices in the second half of the year [84]. - Industry logic: The egg - chicken breeding industry has been profitable for four consecutive years, and the large - scale rate continues to increase [85]. - Supply - demand logic: Egg prices are mainly driven by the supply side, and consumption is mainly seasonally driven. The current egg - chicken inventory is at a high level, and the supply pressure will continue to be released. The key to the price in the third quarter is the rhythm and amplitude of capacity elimination [86]. - Variety view: In the short - term, egg prices are weakly stable; in the medium - term, the supply pressure is high before mid - July, and if there is large - scale elimination in June - July, there may be a phased rebound in August - September [87]. - Trading strategy: The short - selling strategy in the first half of the year has been verified. For 08/09 contracts, there are differences in the expected high - point of spot prices in the second half of the year. It is recommended to enter the market after the market gives a safe space [88].