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海上风电专题研究之四:十五五国内海风开发稳步推进,欧洲和日韩海风蓄势待发
Guoxin Securities·2025-06-28 11:49

Investment Rating - The report rates the offshore wind power industry as "Outperform the Market" [2] Core Insights - The global offshore wind power industry is at a critical turning point, with a record 56GW of new capacity auctioned in 2024 and 48GW under construction, indicating strong mid-term prospects [3][13] - Offshore wind power has become economically viable compared to traditional fossil fuels, with a lifecycle carbon emission of only 12gCO2 per kWh, making it an ideal clean energy choice [9][7] - The industry is moving towards deep-sea, large-scale development, and floating wind farms, which will significantly increase the demand for subsea cables and foundation piles [3][19] Global Offshore Wind Outlook - In 2024, global offshore wind power added 8GW of installed capacity, a 26% decrease from the previous year, primarily due to delays in major markets like China, the UK, and the US [13][14] - The cumulative installed capacity reached 83.2GW by the end of 2024, with China accounting for 62% of new installations [14][15] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Dongfang Cable, Daikin Heavy Industries, Times New Material, Guoda Special Materials, and Goldwind Technology for investment opportunities [3][6] Industry Development Trends - The report forecasts that from 2025 to 2030, global offshore wind power installations will grow from 15.5GW to 38.5GW, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 30% [13][12] - The Asia-Pacific region, particularly Japan and South Korea, is expected to see significant policy and regulatory breakthroughs, supporting the next phase of offshore wind development [3][19] Cost Competitiveness - The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for offshore wind in China is projected to be between 0.28 to 0.41 yuan per kWh, showing significant economic improvement compared to coal power [7][8] - The report emphasizes that the cost of offshore wind power is expected to continue decreasing with technological advancements and industry maturation [7][9]