申万宏源策略一周回顾展望：牛市启动的尝试

Group 1 - The report indicates that the short-term market has broken upward, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing the March high, driven by stable capital market expectations and long-term funds entering the market, particularly from insurance companies [3][6][14] - Key factors contributing to this upward movement include the rapid easing of geopolitical conflicts, the anticipation of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and the emergence of new investment opportunities, particularly in stablecoin themes and defense industries [7][14][17] - The report emphasizes that while there are positive indicators for a bull market in 2026-27, the current market still shows a gap from a full bull market initiation, with weak macroeconomic expectations and a fragmented funding outlook [14][15][16] Group 2 - The report highlights that the financial sector is currently providing a platform for growth, with sectors such as AI computing, stablecoins, and defense industries showing high elasticity and potential for rebound [16][17] - It notes that high-dividend assets are expected to undergo a revaluation in the medium term, and the A-share market is anticipated to return to a structural bull market, relying on breakthroughs in technology industries [17][24] - The report identifies three key asset narratives related to China's strategic opportunities: gold, rare earths, and defense industries, with a strategic outlook favoring Hong Kong stocks as a leading market in a potential bull run [17][24]