2025Q2货政例会点评：“防空转”与“关注长端收益率”仍有定力

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Q2 monetary policy regular meeting basically continued the previous tone. After the implementation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, the expression of aggregate monetary policy tools was adjusted to "flexibly grasp the intensity and rhythm of policy implementation." - In terms of narrow - liquidity, attention remains on capital use efficiency and capital idling. Since the second quarter, exchange - rate pressure has eased, and the constraint on internal - external balance has weakened. The current capital price center has significantly recovered from a level higher than the policy interest rate, and it is expected that the scope for substantial further easing may be limited. - The meeting continued to retain statements related to the long - end yield trend. Recently, the bond market sentiment has strengthened, and leveraged trading has increased. Given that capital prices are unlikely to decline further, it is expected that the long - end yield will continue to fluctuate within a narrow range of 1.6 - 1.7% in the short term [2][15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Economic Situation - The Q2 monetary policy regular meeting made more positive statements about economic recovery. The assessment of the economic situation in the meeting communique changed from "the economy is generally stable and making progress while maintaining stability" to "the economy shows a positive trend, and social confidence continues to be boosted," affirming more positive factors in economic recovery. However, the assessment of the external environment changed from "weak growth momentum" to "weakening growth momentum" [2][4][5]. 3.2 Policy Tone - The wording in the communique of this monetary policy regular meeting continued the "moderate easing" stance, changing from "choosing the right time to cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates" to "flexibly grasp the intensity and rhythm of policy implementation." The monetary policy setting followed the "moderate easing" statement in the Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference at the end of 2024. The meeting communique continued to "strengthen" counter - cyclical adjustment and reiterated better use of the total and structural dual functions of monetary policy tools. After the "dual cuts" in May, it indicates that the policy maintains a loose orientation in terms of quantity to address domestic demand shortages and external uncertainties, but the form and rhythm of monetary policy operations have high flexibility [2][5][6]. 3.3 Narrow Liquidity - Since the fourth quarter of 2024, the monetary policy regular meeting has consistently emphasized "preventing capital idling." Although the first - quarter monetary policy report did not mention "capital idling," this monetary policy regular meeting still emphasized it after "smooth the monetary policy transmission mechanism and improve capital use efficiency," continuing the statement since the fourth quarter of 2024. Since April, due to trade frictions, the capital price center has significantly loosened. Currently, DR007 has dropped to around 1.5%, suggesting that capital prices are unlikely to decline significantly further, and the capital environment will remain balanced [2][8][9]. 3.4 Exchange - Rate Stabilization - The intensity of the wording was reduced, and the "three resolutes" were no longer mentioned. The Q1 regular meeting mentioned the "three resolutes" regarding the exchange rate: correcting pro - cyclical behavior, dealing with market disruptions, and preventing over - adjustment risks. In Q2, as the pressure to stabilize the exchange rate eased, the relevant statements were removed from the meeting communique, leaving only the statement of "maintaining the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate." Since April, the RMB exchange rate has gradually appreciated from a high of around 7.35 to around 7.17. In the short term, due to the weakening of the US dollar index, the pressure on the RMB exchange rate is relatively limited, so the policy's wording on "stabilizing the exchange rate" has also been adjusted [2][13][14]. 3.5 Real - Estate Policy - The previous policies were recognized, and the goal was to "consolidate the stable situation," continuing the statement of the previous Politburo meeting. Compared with the Q1 monetary policy regular meeting, the communique for this meeting changed from emphasizing "promoting the real - estate market to stop falling and recover" to "consolidating the stable situation," following the spirit of the Politburo meeting at the end of April and recognizing the effectiveness of the previous round of policies [2][14][15].