新房成交仍处季节性低位

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents a comprehensive analysis of the economic situation in the current week, covering aspects such as demand, production, investment, trade, prices, and interest - rate bonds. It shows that the real - estate market is still at a low level, while the automotive consumption is warming up. Industrial production is stable, and infrastructure construction starts remain strong. Trade shows an upward trend, but prices of some commodities are falling. The issuance of interest - rate bonds has a certain progress [1][2][3][4][5][6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Demand: New home sales decline year - on - year, while automotive consumption continues to recover - New home sales: The weekly sales area of commercial housing in 20 cities increased week - on - week but decreased significantly year - on - year, far below the seasonal level. High - tier cities saw a narrowing decline in new home sales year - on - year, while low - tier cities had a larger decline. The sales area of second - hand housing in key cities mostly decreased week - on - week [1][11][27]. - Consumption: The daily average retail and wholesale sales of passenger cars increased significantly week - on - week. Movie consumption was below the seasonal level, and travel performance was divided. The national migration scale index decreased week - on - week, while the subway passenger volume in first - tier cities recovered [1]. 3.2 Production: Industrial production runs smoothly, and infrastructure construction starts remain strong - Mid - and upstream: The blast furnace operating rate in Tangshan remained basically flat, the rebar operating rate increased, the PTA operating rate decreased week - on - week, and the operating rates of polyester filament and petroleum asphalt plants increased week - on - week, indicating a possible marginal improvement in infrastructure construction starts [2][44]. - Downstream: The operating rate of all - steel tires for automobiles continued to rise, while the operating rate of semi - steel tires decreased slightly week - on - week. The absolute value of semi - steel tires was still higher than the same period in previous years. The trade - in subsidy policy may support the production side in the short term [2][44]. 3.3 Investment: The apparent consumption of rebar recovers, and cement prices decline The apparent consumption of rebar improved, and its price decreased week - on - week. The cement shipping rate decreased, the cement storage capacity ratio increased, and the cement price declined [3][59]. 3.4 Trade: Port throughput increases, and export container shipping prices continue to rise - Export: The container throughput of ports increased, and the CCFI composite index rebounded week - on - week. Freight rates on European routes increased, those on the US West Coast routes decreased, and those on Southeast Asian routes remained basically flat. In addition, the BDI index also declined [4][71]. - Import: Container shipping prices increased, and the CICFI composite index rose slightly by 1.2% week - on - week [4][71]. 3.5 Prices: Agricultural product prices are weak, and international crude oil prices decline - CPI: The 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices dropped by 0.2% week - on - week. Pork and fruit prices decreased, while egg and vegetable prices rebounded slightly [5][82]. - PPI: Commodity and metal price indices declined. The Nanhua industrial product price index decreased by 0.9% week - on - week, Brent crude oil spot price dropped by 8.2% week - on - week, COMEX gold futures price decreased by 1.8% week - on - week, and LME copper spot price increased by 1.8% week - on - week [5][90]. 3.6 Interest - rate Bond Tracking: The cumulative issuance progress of replacement bonds this year reaches 90% - Next week (June 30 - July 4), the disclosed issuance of interest - rate bonds is 97.1 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 39.5 billion yuan. Among them, the issuance of national bonds is 0 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 80.2 billion yuan; the issuance of local bonds is 72.1 billion yuan, with a net financing of 21.7 billion yuan [6][101]. - As of June 27, the issuance scale of replacement bonds this year is 1.7959 trillion yuan, with a cumulative issuance progress of 89.8%; the issuance of new general bonds is 445.4 billion yuan, with a cumulative issuance progress of 55.7%; the issuance of new special bonds is 2.1127 trillion yuan, with a cumulative issuance progress of 48.0% [6]. - 29 provinces and municipalities directly under the central government have disclosed their local government bond issuance plans for the third quarter of 2025, with a total planned issuance scale of 2.5868 trillion yuan [6][112]. 3.7 Policy Weekly Observation: The central bank's second - quarter regular meeting emphasizes flexible policy implementation - On June 24, the Ministry of Finance stated that the final accounts were generally good and would implement a more proactive fiscal policy [114]. - On June 23, the central bank's policy committee held its second - quarter regular meeting in 2025, suggesting to increase the intensity of monetary policy regulation and flexibly control the intensity and rhythm of policy implementation [115]. - On June 24, six departments including the central bank jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for Boosting and Expanding Consumption" [116]. - On June 25 (local time), Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that the Fed is in no hurry to cut interest rates [117]. - On June 25, Guangdong Province implemented policies on off - site provident fund loans and withdrawals for off - site house purchases [118]. - On June 26, Qingdao City optimized and adjusted its housing provident fund loan policy [119].