Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-06-28 14:19Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the metals and new materials industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a strong performance in the metals sector, with the non-ferrous metals index outperforming the broader market indices [3][4] - It emphasizes the upward trend in industrial metal prices, particularly copper and aluminum, driven by supply-demand dynamics and macroeconomic factors [3][9] - The report suggests a long-term bullish outlook for gold prices due to central bank purchasing trends and geopolitical uncertainties [3][21] Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.91%, while the non-ferrous metals index increased by 5.11%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 3.16 percentage points [3][4] - Year-to-date, the non-ferrous metals index has risen by 17.99%, significantly outpacing the CSI 300 [4][8] - Key metal price movements include a 7.33% increase in copper and a 5.37% rise in aluminum over the past week [3][9] Price Changes - Industrial metal prices saw increases: copper up by 2.54%, aluminum by 1.78%, and zinc by 5.65% [3][15] - Precious metals experienced a decline, with gold prices down by 2.90% [3][15] - Lithium prices showed a slight increase, with battery-grade lithium carbonate rising by 1.67% [3][15] Supply and Demand Analysis - Copper supply remains tight, with domestic social inventory decreasing by 1.6 million tons [3][29] - Aluminum production capacity is stable, with a reported operating rate of 97.6% [3][46] - Steel production has increased, but demand from downstream sectors has softened, leading to a mixed outlook for the steel market [3][67] Key Company Valuations - Notable companies in the sector include Zijin Mining, with a PE ratio of 25, and China Aluminum, with a PE ratio of 16 [3][18] - The report suggests focusing on companies with stable earnings and dividend attributes, such as Baosteel and Shandong Steel [3][19]