超长信用债涨势暂歇，3-5年中低等级表现占优

Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide information about the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The rally of ultra-long credit bonds has paused, with 3 - 5-year medium and low-grade bonds performing better. Interest rate bond yields have shown narrow fluctuations overall, while credit bond yields have also maintained a volatile pattern. Credit spreads have different changes across various maturities and ratings [2][5]. - Most urban investment bond spreads have increased, with varying trends among different regions and ratings [2][9]. - Industrial bond spreads are generally stable, but the spreads of mixed-ownership real estate bonds continue to rise [2][13]. - Most yields of secondary capital and perpetual bonds (Two-Permanent Bonds) have increased, and the spreads have slightly widened [2][26]. - The excess spreads of industrial perpetual bonds have decreased, while those of urban investment perpetual bonds have slightly increased [2][28]. Summary by Directory 1. The Rally of Ultra-long Credit Bonds Pauses, 3 - 5-year Medium and Low-grade Bonds Perform Better - Interest rate bond yields have narrow fluctuations: 1Y and 5Y Guokai bond yields have decreased by 1BP, 3Y yields remain flat, and 7Y and 10Y yields have increased by 1 - 2BP [5]. - Credit bond yields are volatile: The yields of 7-year and 3 - 5-year high-grade bonds have rebounded, while 3 - 5-year medium and low-grade bonds perform relatively strongly. Yield changes vary by maturity and rating [5]. - Credit spreads: 1Y spreads change between -1 and 1BP; 3Y AAA spreads increase by 3BP, others decrease by 2BP; 5Y AAA spreads increase by 3BP, others decrease by 3 - 4BP; 7Y spreads increase by 0 - 1BP; 10Y spreads of AAA, AA+, and AA change by 2BP, -2BP, and 1BP respectively [2][5]. - Rating and term spreads show obvious differentiation [5]. 2. Most Urban Investment Bond Spreads Increase - External ratings: AAA and AA+ platform spreads increase by 2BP, AA platform spreads increase by 3BP [2][9]. - Provincial platforms: Most AAA platform spreads increase by 1 - 3BP, with Guangxi decreasing by 4BP, Jilin and Liaoning increasing by 5BP; most AA+ platform spreads increase by 1 - 3BP, Jilin increasing by 7BP; most AA platform spreads increase by 1 - 3BP, Liaoning decreasing by 6BP, Xinjiang and Gansu increasing by 4BP [9][10][11]. - Administrative levels: Provincial, prefecture-level, and district-level platform spreads all increase by 2BP, with different trends in different regions [14][15]. 3. Industrial Bond Spreads are Generally Stable, Mixed-ownership Real Estate Bond Spreads Continue to Rise - Real estate bonds: Central and local state-owned enterprise real estate bond spreads are basically flat compared to last week, mixed-ownership real estate bond spreads increase by 8BP, and private enterprise real estate bond spreads increase by 40BP. Spreads of individual real estate companies vary [2][13]. - Other industrial bonds: AAA coal bond spreads increase by 1BP, AA+ remain flat, AA decrease by 1BP; AAA and AA+ steel bond spreads decrease by 1BP and 2BP respectively; spreads of various grades of chemical bonds increase by 0 - 1BP. Spreads of individual companies such as Shaanxi Coal and HBIS decrease by 1BP, while Jinkong Coal Industry increases by 7BP [13]. 4. Most Yields of Two-Permanent Bonds Increase, Spreads Slightly Widen - 1Y bonds: Secondary capital bond yields of all grades increase by 1 - 2BP, perpetual bond yields increase by 2 - 3BP, and spreads generally increase by 2 - 3BP [26]. - 3Y bonds: Secondary capital bond yields of all grades increase by 2 - 4BP, perpetual bond yields increase by 1BP, and spreads increase in line with yields [26]. - 5Y bonds: Yields and spreads of all grades of Two-Permanent Bonds increase by 0 - 1BP [26]. 5. The Excess Spreads of Industrial Perpetual Bonds Decrease, Urban Investment Bond Excess Spreads Slightly Increase - Industrial perpetual bonds: The excess spreads of industrial AAA 3Y perpetual bonds decrease by 2.38BP to 3.81BP, at the 0.07% percentile since 2015; the excess spreads of AAA 5Y perpetual bonds decrease by 2.60BP to 8.51BP, at the 5.80% percentile [2][28]. - Urban investment perpetual bonds: The excess spreads of urban investment AAA 3Y perpetual bonds increase by 0.15BP to 6.14BP, at the 2.86% percentile; the excess spreads of AAA 5Y perpetual bonds increase by 0.44BP to 9.81BP, at the 8.80% percentile [2][28]. 6. Credit Spread Database Compilation Instructions - Market credit spreads are calculated based on ChinaBond Medium and Short-term Notes and ChinaBond Perpetual Bonds data, with historical percentiles since early 2015 [36]. - Credit spreads of industrial and urban investment individual bonds are calculated by subtracting the yield of the same-term Guokai bond from the individual bond's ChinaBond valuation, and then averaged to get the industry or regional credit spreads [36]. - Excess spreads of bank secondary capital and perpetual bonds, as well as industrial and urban investment perpetual bonds, are calculated by subtracting the credit spreads of corresponding benchmark bonds [36]. - Samples of industrial and urban investment bonds are selected from medium notes and public corporate bonds, excluding guaranteed and perpetual bonds. Bonds with remaining maturities below 0.5 years or above 5 years are excluded [36]. - Industrial and urban investment bonds use external entity ratings, while commercial banks use ChinaBond implicit debt ratings [36].