国信期货（镍、不锈钢）半年报：低位区间，沪镍持续磨底

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, nickel prices showed an overall oscillating downward trend. The supply - side surplus intensified with increasing refined nickel production, high LME nickel inventory, and continuous stockpiling. The demand - side was structurally weak, with limited demand pull from the new energy sector and low demand in the stainless - steel industry [6][50]. - The macro - economic situation in the US and China had different impacts on the nickel market. In the US, the Fed's interest - rate policy was uncertain due to inflation and tariff issues. In China, the economy showed strong resilience and structural optimization, but the nickel market was affected by factors such as high inventory and weak demand [4][5]. - In the second half of the year, attention should be paid to the adjustment of Indonesia's nickel ore policy, the reduction efforts of the stainless - steel industry, and the marginal improvement of new energy demand [51]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs I. Market Review - In 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel futures showed a complex trend of "rushing up and then falling back - oscillating to build a bottom - stage rebound - falling back again". It was affected by factors such as Indonesia's nickel ore policy, new energy demand expectations, refined nickel stockpiling, stainless - steel demand, and US tariff increases [10]. II. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Supply - side Analysis - LME and SHFE Inventory: Since the second half of 2023, both LME and SHFE nickel inventories have shown a steady upward trend. As of late June 2025, SHFE inventory was 25,304 tons, and LME inventory was 204,216 tons [13]. - Nickel Port Inventory: As of June 20, 2025, nickel port inventory was 4.6591 million tons [15]. - Import of Philippine Nickel Ore: The import of Philippine nickel ore sand and concentrates in China showed seasonal fluctuations [16]. - Electrolytic Nickel Price: The prices of domestic and imported electrolytic nickel have shown a weak oscillating trend this year, closing at around 120,180 yuan/ton in late June [21]. - Nickel Sulfate Price: As of June 26, 2025, the nickel sulfate price dropped to 28,930 yuan/ton [25]. - Nickel Iron Import Volume and Price: On June 26, 2025, the Fubao price of nickel iron (8% - 12%) was 940 yuan/nickel [27]. 2.2 Demand - side Analysis - Stainless - steel Price and Position: The stainless - steel futures price showed a weak downward trend, with the market range in the first half of the year approximately between 12,300 yuan/ton and 13,700 yuan/ton [32]. - Stainless - steel Inventory: As of June 20, 2025, the inventories of 300 - series stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan were 475,200 tons and 184,100 tons respectively [37]. - Production of Power and Energy - storage Batteries: The production of power and energy - storage batteries showed certain trends, but specific analysis was not detailed in the report [40]. - New Energy Vehicle Production: The production of new energy vehicles also showed certain trends, but specific analysis was not detailed in the report [48]. III. Outlook for the Future - In the first half of 2025, the domestic refined nickel production continued to climb, with the cumulative output from January to May reaching 173,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.99%. The over - supply pattern in the market intensified, and the demand was weak. The stainless - steel industry showed characteristics of "high production, high inventory, and low demand" [50].