超长债周报：资金面收敛，超长债量升价跌-20250629

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Last week, the Israel - Iran cease - fire, the funding situation continued to tighten near the half - year mark, and MLF was scaled back. The bond market adjusted slightly, and ultra - long bonds declined slightly. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds increased significantly, and both the term spread and the variety spread remained flat [1][9][36] - For the 30 - year treasury bond, as of June 27, the spread between the 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 20BP, at a historically low level. Considering that the funding rate will decline again after the half - year mark, the bond market is more likely to rise, but the term spread protection is limited [2][10] - For the 20 - year CDB bond, as of June 27, the spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the 20 - year treasury bond was 4BP, at a historically extremely low level. The bond market is more likely to rise after the half - year mark, but the variety spread protection is limited [3][11] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Review Ultra - long Bond Review - Last week, due to the Israel - Iran cease - fire, tightened funding near the half - year mark, and MLF scaling back, the bond market adjusted slightly, and ultra - long bonds declined slightly. Trading activity increased significantly, and both term and variety spreads remained flat [1][9][36] 2. Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook 30 - year Treasury Bond - As of June 27, the 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bond spread was 20BP, at a historically low level. The May GDP growth rate was about 5.0% year - on - year, down 0.1% from April but still higher than the annual target. May CPI was - 0.1% and PPI was - 3.1%, with deflation risks. Exports declined rapidly in May, and domestic housing prices turned negative month - on - month. After the half - year mark, the bond market is more likely to rise, but term spread protection is limited [2][10] 20 - year CDB Bond - As of June 27, the 20 - year CDB bond and 20 - year treasury bond spread was 4BP, at a historically extremely low level. Economic data shows similar characteristics as the 30 - year treasury bond situation. After the half - year mark, the bond market is more likely to rise, but variety spread protection is limited [3][11] 3. Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - As of May 31, the balance of ultra - long bonds with a remaining maturity of over 14 years was 21.6823 trillion yuan, accounting for 14.4% of all bonds. Local government bonds and treasury bonds are the main varieties. By remaining maturity, the 30 - year variety has the highest proportion [12] 4. Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week (June 23 - 27, 2025), the issuance of ultra - long bonds increased significantly, totaling 389.9 billion yuan. By variety, local government bonds and treasury bonds were the main issuers. By term, 30 - year bonds had the largest issuance volume [17] This Week's Planned Issuance - The announced ultra - long bond issuance plan for this week is 33.6 billion yuan, all of which are ultra - long local government bonds [21] 5. Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, ultra - long bond trading was very active, with a turnover of 1.3892 trillion yuan, accounting for 14.2% of all bonds. Compared with the previous week, trading activity increased significantly [23] Yield - Last week, due to various factors, the bond market adjusted slightly, and ultra - long bonds declined slightly. Yields of different - term and different - variety ultra - long bonds changed to varying degrees [36] Spread Analysis - Last week, the term spread of ultra - long bonds remained flat, with an absolute low level. The benchmark 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bond spread was 20BP. The variety spread also remained flat, with an absolute low level. The benchmark 20 - year CDB bond and treasury bond spread was 4BP, and the 20 - year railway bond and treasury bond spread was 9BP [42][43] 6. 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main 30 - year treasury bond futures contract TL2509 closed at 120.89 yuan, a decline of 0.35%. Trading volume increased significantly compared with the previous week, and open interest increased slightly [50]