大炼化周报：成本端大幅走跌，炼化产品价差全面改善-20250629

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" as the industry index is expected to outperform the benchmark [123]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in costs, leading to an overall improvement in refining product margins. The domestic refining project margin reached 2575.82 CNY/ton, up by 190.23 CNY/ton (+7.97%), while the international margin was 1229.14 CNY/ton, increasing by 226.59 CNY/ton (+22.60%) [1][2]. - Brent crude oil's average price decreased to 69.25 USD/barrel, down by 8.31% [1]. - The report indicates that geopolitical tensions initially raised oil prices, but subsequent signals from the U.S. government and diplomatic efforts led to a price drop [1][12]. - The chemical sector saw improved profitability due to a notable drop in costs, with prices for polyethylene and polypropylene rising, while other chemical products experienced slight price declines but improved margins [1][49]. - The polyester sector also showed a rise in price levels, with PX prices following crude oil trends, leading to a significant expansion in price differentials [1][79]. Summary by Sections Refining Sector - The refining sector experienced a significant increase in product price differentials, with domestic and international margins improving due to falling crude oil prices [1][2]. - The report notes that the average prices for domestic diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel increased, with respective price differentials also rising [12]. Chemical Sector - The chemical sector's profitability improved as costs decreased, with notable price increases for polyethylene and polypropylene, while other products like EVA and pure benzene saw slight price drops but improved margins [1][49][62]. - The report indicates that the price of MMA decreased slightly, but the price differential improved [1][66]. Polyester Sector - The polyester industry saw an upward trend in price levels, with PX prices influenced by crude oil prices, leading to a significant expansion in price differentials [1][79]. - The report highlights that the average price for PTA increased slightly, while the industry faced challenges with profitability [1][91].