5月工业企业利润点评：关税扰动滞后，政策增量可期

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - In May, the year - on - year profit of industrial enterprises above designated size dropped to -9.1%, a significant decline from April. The year - on - year decline of PPI in May was 3.3%, and the drag on profits increased compared to April. After excluding price factors, the growth rate of single - month operating income declined marginally, indicating that the support from quantity factors also weakened in May. The resonance of internal and external demand fluctuations and the widening decline of PPI under the influence of tariffs led to a further decline in the profit growth rate in May [2][25]. - Looking ahead, the "rush - to - export" effect has weakened since June. The internal driving force of the economy in the second quarter shows obvious off - season characteristics, and the economy in the second half of the year faces high - base disturbances, so the necessity of domestic demand policy stimulus increases. The lower price base and the gradual expenditure of fiscal funds may help repair the price side of corporate profits. The importance of domestic demand stimulus becomes prominent as the export elasticity may weaken and the external tariff policy environment faces uncertainties in August [2][28]. - In the third quarter, the existing domestic demand policies such as consumption and investment may be further strengthened, and the quantity factors may improve marginally. At the same time, the PPI base will be lower in the second half of the year. Coupled with the stimulus of domestic demand and the formation of project expenditures and physical work volume by previous fiscal funds, the drag of prices on corporate profits is also expected to narrow [28]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Industry Perspective: Downstream Consumption Policy Support Catalyzes, while Upstream and Mid - stream Face Disturbances - Upstream: Mining industry profits are still under pressure, with most industries seeing an expansion of profit decline, but the energy supply industry continues to grow positively. For example, the profit decline of coal mining and washing, oil and gas extraction, and ferrous metal ore mining industries widened; the profit of non - ferrous metal ore mining industry increased, and the profit of the power, heat, gas, and water production and supply industry increased slightly [8][16]. - Mid - stream: Equipment manufacturing is better than material processing, and it continues to grow slightly. The pressure on the material processing industry persists, with the year - on - year decline expanding. The profit growth rate of mid - stream equipment manufacturing decreased, with the cumulative year - on - year growth rate at +0.1% [17]. - Downstream: There is a structural differentiation between essential and optional consumption, and the electronics equipment industry still performs strongly. The profit of essential consumption turned negative year - on - year, while the profit of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery and the beverage industry maintained growth. Most of the optional consumption industries had weak year - on - year profits, but the electronics equipment industry still performed well [18]. 3.2 Cost Side: Slight Increase in Expenses, Marginal Slight Improvement in Profit Margin - From January to May, the cost per 100 yuan of operating income of industrial enterprises above designated size was 85.61 yuan, an increase of 0.24 yuan year - on - year and 0.07 yuan compared to January - April. The expense per 100 yuan of operating income was 8.29 yuan, a decrease of 0.14 yuan year - on - year but an increase of 0.01 yuan compared to January - April, indicating a slowdown in the pace of cost reduction. The cumulative operating income profit margin from January to May was 4.97%, a decrease of 0.22 percentage points year - on - year but an increase of 0.10 percentage points compared to January - April. Although the profit efficiency is still a drag compared to the same period last year, it has improved marginally [1][20]. 3.3 Inventory: Actual Inventory May Increase Passively - As of the end of May, the finished - product inventory of industrial enterprises above designated size was 6.65 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 4.1%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points compared to the end of April, and the nominal inventory growth rate declined slightly. After considering price factors, the actual inventory growth rate after excluding PPI was 6.8%, an increase from 6.6% in April. Since the sales - to - production ratio slowed down in May, indicating weak actual demand recovery, the actual inventory may have increased passively. The turnover days of finished - product inventory from January to May were 20.8 days, an increase of 0.1 days year - on - year but a decrease of 0.2 days compared to January - April, indicating a slightly faster turnover rhythm. The average collection period of accounts receivable was 70.5 days, an increase of 3.7 days year - on - year but a decrease of 0.2 days compared to January - April, indicating that the policy of promoting the settlement of arrears has compressed the collection period [23].