大能源行业2025年第26周周报：5月电力装机与新疆内蒙136号文解读重申看好风电设备-20250629

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the energy sector [4]. Core Insights - In May, new energy installations reached a historical high, with significant growth in solar and wind power capacities, indicating a strong market trend [4][5]. - The implementation of the 136 document in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia shows a divergence in policy support for new energy projects, impacting investment expectations [6][33]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Power Generation - As of the end of May, the total installed power generation capacity in China reached 361 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 18.8%. Solar power capacity was 108 million kilowatts, up 56.9%, and wind power capacity was 57 million kilowatts, up 23.1% [15][16]. - In the first five months of 2025, new wind power installations totaled 46.3 GW, a year-on-year increase of 134.2%, while solar power installations reached 197.9 GW, up 150.0% [5][15]. Section 2: Policy Analysis - Xinjiang's 136 document supports existing projects with a favorable pricing mechanism, while Inner Mongolia has achieved a high degree of marketization, with new projects fully entering the market [6][39]. - Xinjiang's pricing for new projects is set between 0.15 and 0.262 yuan per kilowatt-hour, which is higher than the local coal benchmark price, indicating strong government support for new energy [34][37]. Section 3: Wind Power Equipment - The report highlights a potential improvement in profitability for wind turbine manufacturers due to a slowdown in the rapid large-scale development of wind turbines, which had previously pressured profit margins [45][52]. - The concentration of the wind turbine market is increasing, with fewer suppliers remaining, indicating a high barrier to entry and potential for improved profitability in the sector [53][54]. Section 4: Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include major hydropower firms such as China Yangtze Power and Huaneng Hydropower, as well as wind power companies like Longyuan Power and Datang Renewable [7][43]. - Suggested stocks to watch include Guangzhou Development and Harbin Electric [44].