KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-06-29 06:05Investment Rating - Investment rating for the basic chemical industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the price of phosphate rock remains high, and the supply-demand dynamics are expected to continue to support this trend. The performance of listed companies in the phosphate chemical sector, such as Yuntianhua and Chuanheng Co., has been strong, with significant dividends expected [4][14] - The report maintains the view that barriers to phosphate mining and selection are increasing, which may lead to lower-than-expected supply growth, keeping price levels elevated. The optimization of the product structure in the phosphate chemical sector is expected to help companies maintain stable operations and enhance cash dividend capabilities [4][14] Resource Side - In 2024, China's phosphate rock reserves are approximately 3.7 billion tons, a decrease of 1 million tons year-on-year, representing a decline of 2.6%. The domestic phosphate rock production in 2024 is projected to be 113.52 million tons, an increase of 8.2% year-on-year [5][16] - The report forecasts limited new supply of phosphate rock from 2025 to 2026, with domestic production expected to reach 120.38 million tons in 2025, 136.33 million tons in 2026, and 151.73 million tons in 2027 [5][32] Product Side - The supply of phosphate ammonium and feed-grade calcium phosphate is optimizing, with wet-process phosphoric acid production continuing to increase. The demand for wet-process phosphoric acid is expected to rise steadily, reaching a 17.3% share of phosphate rock demand in 2024, up from previous years [5][36] - The report highlights that the domestic phosphate ammonium market is experiencing limited new capacity, with the CR5 capacity shares for various types of phosphate ammonium being 71%, 30%, and 44% respectively [5][35] Supply-Demand Matching - The report anticipates that the supply-demand balance for phosphate rock will remain tight in 2025, with consumption expected to be 98.3% of production. The supply-demand situation is expected to ease slightly in 2026 and 2027 [6][32] Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The report recommends companies with integrated mining and processing capabilities, such as Xingfa Group and Yuntianhua, as potential investment targets due to their strong operational performance and dividend potential [4][14]