Soochow Securities·2025-06-29 07:20Core Conclusions - The report suggests a strong investment focus on automotive intelligence, viewing it as a transformative revolution in transportation, with three key phases: helping automakers sell cars, enabling software monetization through Robotaxi, and the global rise of domestic brands [2] - The year 2025 is anticipated to be a pivotal point for automotive intelligence, with urban NOA (Level 3 intelligence) becoming a top consideration for consumers when purchasing vehicles. The report tracks the penetration rate of L3 intelligence from 10% in 2025 to over 80% by 2027 [2][4] - The automotive intelligence landscape is characterized by a competitive elimination model, where companies will be categorized into three types: B-end Robotaxi operators, C-end personalized brands, and high-end vehicle manufacturers. Component suppliers will be divided into modular and single-category suppliers [2] Consumer Willingness to Pay for Intelligence - As of June, the urban NOA penetration rate reached 22.0%, marking the first time it surpassed 20%. The AITO M8 features urban NCA as standard across all models, with increasing deliveries. The overall urban NOA penetration rate for Li Auto's 2025 models is 54.9%, up 10.6 percentage points from the previous month, also surpassing 50% for the first time [3][9] - Key new models include the Xiaopeng G7 Ultra, which debuted with the Turing AI chip, providing an industry-first L3-level computing platform with effective computing power exceeding 2200 TOPS. The Xiaomi YU7 features the NVIDIA AGX Thor chip with 700 TOPS, significantly enhancing its performance metrics [3][9] Investment Recommendations for 2025 - Continued optimism for intelligent vehicles, with a focus on new vehicle cycles and monthly sales tracking. The report favors Hong Kong-listed companies (e.g., Xiaopeng Motors, Li Auto, Xiaomi Group) over A-share companies (e.g., BYD, SAIC Group, Seres) [2] - Positive outlook for incremental intelligent components, including AI chips (e.g., Horizon Robotics, Black Sesame Intelligence), domain controllers (e.g., Desay SV, Huayang Group), steer-by-wire chassis (e.g., Bertel, Nexperia), and automotive electronics (e.g., Baolong Technology, Jingwei Hirain) [2] Market Size and Projections - The report outlines a significant growth trajectory for the Robotaxi market, projecting a domestic market size of 0 to 30 billion yuan by 2025-2027, with annual sales expected to reach 1.5 million units by 2030 [10][11] - The core task of automotive intelligence from 2025 to 2027 is to drive the penetration rate of domestic new energy vehicles (NEVs) to between 50% and 80% [11] Supply Chain Tracking - The report provides a detailed breakdown of the automotive intelligence supply chain, categorizing key hardware and software companies involved in perception, decision-making, and execution [6] - Notable companies in the hardware segment include Sunyu Optical Technology, Hesai Technology, and NVIDIA, while software companies include WeRide and Pony.ai [6] Brand Performance in Urban NOA - Xiaopeng's overall urban NOA penetration rate is 61.3%, with a 7.4 percentage point increase, driven by the G6/G9 models. AITO's penetration rate is 95.0%, with a 4.1 percentage point increase due to the M8 model's performance [17] - Li Auto's urban NOA penetration rate is 54.9%, marking a significant increase, while Wey's penetration rate stands at 95.8%, reflecting strong demand for intelligent driving features [17]