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本周聚焦:短暂回调后,银行股怎么看?
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES·2025-06-29 07:31

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the banking sector, indicating a positive outlook for bank stocks despite recent short-term corrections [4]. Core Insights - The banking sector is expected to maintain its performance due to the relative advantage of dividend yields, stable earnings, and predictable dividends. The average dividend yield for major state-owned banks is 4.07%, with a significant spread of 2.42% over the 10-year government bond yield, placing it in the 49.10th percentile over the past decade [1][17]. - The report highlights that the insurance sector is likely to increase its allocation to high-dividend bank stocks, especially with anticipated reductions in preset interest rates for insurance products [1]. - The report anticipates a stable profit growth for banks, with a projected profit growth rate of 2.35% for listed banks in 2024, supported by substantial unrealized gains from self-owned bonds and a robust provisioning coverage ratio of 238% as of Q1 2025 [3][7]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Market Performance - The banking index experienced a nearly 3% decline on June 27, 2025, but the overall market sentiment remains positive due to the sector's dividend yield advantages and stable earnings [1]. Section 2: Fund Flows - Since the beginning of 2025, southbound funds have significantly increased their allocation to Hong Kong bank stocks, with a net inflow of approximately 680 billion yuan, of which 146.2 billion yuan is directed towards bank stocks [2]. Section 3: Earnings Stability - Historical data indicates that the banking sector has low earnings volatility, with profits showing stable positive growth. The report emphasizes the importance of unrealized gains from bond investments and strong provisioning as key factors supporting profit stability [3][7][8]. Section 4: Sector Outlook - The report suggests that while short-term export impacts may arise from tariff policies, long-term domestic policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market and boosting consumption will benefit the banking sector. Specific banks such as Ningbo Bank, Postal Savings Bank, and China Merchants Bank are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [9]. Section 5: Key Data Tracking - The report includes various financial metrics, such as the average daily trading volume of stocks at 14,868.42 billion yuan and a margin balance of 1.83 trillion yuan, indicating active market engagement [10].