ZHESHANG SECURITIES·2025-06-29 07:43Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights the recovery of demand in European markets and emerging markets, while the trade friction with the US is expected to stabilize demand due to the nature of the products being essential and less price-sensitive [1] - The report indicates that the sentiment in the export chain is likely to improve due to positive signals regarding tariffs and the anticipated interest rate cuts in the US [4][1] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the upcoming CPI data on July 15, which could influence the timing of potential interest rate cuts [4] Summary by Sections Export Direction - Focus on the recovery of demand in European lines and growth in emerging markets [1] - Trade friction with the US is expected to stabilize demand, with tariffs easing and essential products maintaining steady orders [1] Stock Price Review - As of June 28, 31 export companies have shown an average stock price increase of 0.7% since April 2, with about 32% of companies recovering to their April 2 levels [2] - Some companies, like TaoTao Automotive and Spring Power, have significantly exceeded their April 2 highs, while Giant Star Technology still has considerable valuation recovery potential [2] Key Events and Policy Expectations - Positive signals regarding tariffs are expected to alleviate sentiment pressures in the export chain [4] - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have increased, with a 74.8% probability of the first cut occurring in September [4] - The acceleration of tax reform is anticipated to boost terminal demand and corporate CAPEx investment [4] Investment Recommendations - For North America, the report recommends focusing on companies like Giant Star Technology, TaoTao Automotive, and Spring Power, among others [4] - For non-US markets, it suggests companies with both cyclical and growth potential, including Huadong Cable and Sany Heavy Industry [4]