短期仍有反弹动能，适时收缩仓位应对后续震荡

Investment Focus - The report indicates that despite a cautious medium-term outlook, there is potential for a short-term market rebound following recent declines, especially if geopolitical tensions ease [1][10] - The Hang Seng Index experienced a strong rebound, rising 3.2%, with technology stocks showing significant recovery potential after sufficient corrections [1][10] - The report highlights that sectors such as materials, technology, and finance led the gains in the Hong Kong market, while A-shares saw strong performance in technology, materials, and industrials [1][10] Liquidity Analysis - Signs of liquidity disturbances have emerged, with the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) responding quickly to strong-side convertibility triggers by injecting significant amounts of HKD into the market [2][11] - The HKMA's actions in May 2023 included selling nearly HKD 130 billion, which led to a drop in HIBOR to very low levels, impacting the HKD-USD interest rate spread [2][11] - The report notes that as liquidity remains loose, speculative trading has increased, with several low-priced stocks doubling in value within a single day [3][12] Southbound Fund Flows - Southbound fund inflows increased to HKD 28.4 billion amid easing Middle Eastern tensions, although this remains significantly lower than inflows seen earlier in the year [3][13] - Notable purchases included Guotai Junan International, while Alibaba and Tencent experienced moderate outflows, indicating shifting investor sentiment [3][13] - The report identifies that southbound funds primarily flowed into financials, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors, while reducing exposure to communication services and energy [3][13] A-Share Market Dynamics - The brokerage sector's rally led to an increase in margin financing and securities lending balances, indicating renewed investor interest [4][14] - However, macroeconomic uncertainties may limit incremental capital inflows, potentially leading to funding supply pressures if margin financing continues to rise [4][14] - The banking sector experienced a sharp decline after sustained gains, reflecting signs of marginal liquidity weakening in the market [4][14] Market Outlook - The report concludes that while a short-term rebound is likely, the broader oscillation pattern in the market has not ended, with risks in high-flying sectors still not fully released [4][15] - Positive developments in U.S.-China relations and strong earnings expectations in overseas AI infrastructure stocks may support market sentiment in the short term [4][15] - Investors are advised to gradually reduce exposure during the rebound, particularly in sectors that have seen significant recent gains, to prepare for potential volatility [4][15]