Soochow Securities·2025-06-29 08:12Report Summary 1. Investment Rating of the Industry The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the polyurethane sector, this week, the average prices of pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI were 17,040 yuan/ton, 15,650 yuan/ton, and 11,225 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week decreases of 170 yuan/ton, 120 yuan/ton, and 155 yuan/ton. Their respective gross profits were 3,556 yuan/ton, 3,177 yuan/ton, and - 280 yuan/ton, with week - on - week decreases of 158 yuan/ton, 36 yuan/ton, and 69 yuan/ton [2]. - In the oil - gas - olefin sector, the average prices of ethane, propane, steam coal, and naphtha this week were 1,172 yuan/ton, 4,189 yuan/ton, 470 yuan/ton, and 4,221 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week decreases of 72 yuan/ton, 183 yuan/ton, 25 yuan/ton, and 330 yuan/ton. The average price of polyethylene was 7,975 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 30 yuan/ton. The theoretical profits of ethylene cracking, CTO, and naphtha cracking to produce polyethylene were 1,418 yuan/ton, 2,113 yuan/ton, and 100 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week increases of 93 yuan/ton, 89 yuan/ton, and 348 yuan/ton. The average price of polypropylene was 7,136 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 24 yuan/ton. The theoretical profits of PDH, CTO, and naphtha cracking to produce polypropylene were - 38 yuan/ton, 1,752 yuan/ton, and - 80 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week increases of 147 yuan/ton, 50 yuan/ton, and 308 yuan/ton [2]. - In the coal - chemical sector, the average prices of synthetic ammonia, urea, DMF, and acetic acid this week were 2,214 yuan/ton, 1,802 yuan/ton, 3,960 yuan/ton, and 2,381 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week changes of - 58 yuan/ton, - 11 yuan/ton, + 20 yuan/ton, and + 17 yuan/ton. Their respective gross profits were 336 yuan/ton, 156 yuan/ton, - 214 yuan/ton, and 4 yuan/ton, with week - on - week changes of - 63 yuan/ton, - 10 yuan/ton, + 22 yuan/ton, and + 61 yuan/ton [2]. - The relevant listed companies in the chemical industry include Wanhua Chemical, Baofeng Energy, Satellite Chemical, and Hualu Hengsheng [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Basic Chemical Weekly Data Briefing - Related Company Performance Tracking - The basic chemical index had a weekly increase of 3.1%, a monthly increase of 2.2%, a three - month decrease of 0.7%, an annual increase of 12.1%, and a year - to - date increase of 6.4% as of June 27, 2025 [8]. - Wanhua Chemical had a weekly increase of 0.4%, a monthly decrease of 2.4%, a three - month decrease of 20.5%, an annual decrease of 36.2%, and a year - to - date decrease of 24.2% [8]. - Baofeng Energy had a weekly decrease of 1.5%, a monthly increase of 0.2%, a three - month decrease of 5.3%, an annual increase of 0.2%, and a year - to - date decrease of 0.9% [8]. - Satellite Chemical had a weekly increase of 7.2%, a monthly increase of 0.6%, a three - month decrease of 18.4%, an annual decrease of 3.0%, and a year - to - date decrease of 6.1% [8]. - Hualu Hengsheng had a weekly decrease of 0.6%, a monthly increase of 5.2%, a three - month decrease of 1.9%, an annual decrease of 18.3%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.5% [8]. - Related Company Profit Tracking - As of June 27, 2025, Wanhua Chemical's stock price was 53 yuan, with a total market value of 167.6 billion yuan. Its net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024A was 13.033 billion yuan, and the expected values for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E were 13.966 billion yuan, 16.864 billion yuan, and 19.233 billion yuan respectively. The PE values for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E were 12.9, 12.0, 9.9, and 8.7 respectively, and the PB value for 2025E was 1.7 [8]. - Baofeng Energy's stock price was 16 yuan, with a total market value of 119.2 billion yuan. Its net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024A was 6.338 billion yuan, and the expected values for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E were 12.360 billion yuan, 14.076 billion yuan, and 14.880 billion yuan respectively. The PE values for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E were 18.8, 9.6, 8.5, and 8.0 respectively, and the PB value for 2025E was 2.7 [8]. - Satellite Chemical's stock price was 17 yuan, with a total market value of 57.7 billion yuan. Its net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024A was 6.072 billion yuan, and the expected values for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E were 7.004 billion yuan, 9.103 billion yuan, and 11.075 billion yuan respectively. The PE values for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E were 9.5, 8.2, 6.3, and 5.2 respectively, and the PB value for 2025E was 1.9 [8]. - Hualu Hengsheng's stock price was 22 yuan, with a total market value of 46.1 billion yuan. Its net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024A was 3.903 billion yuan, and the expected values for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E were 4.265 billion yuan, 4.690 billion yuan, and 5.066 billion yuan respectively. The PE values for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E were 11.8, 10.8, 9.8, and 9.1 respectively, and the PB value for 2025E was 1.5 [8]. - Polyurethane Industry Chain - The average price of pure MDI was 17,040 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 170 yuan/ton, and a seven - year quantile of 11%. Its gross profit was 3,556 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 158 yuan/ton, and a seven - year quantile of 34% [8]. - The average price of polymer MDI was 15,650 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 120 yuan/ton, and a seven - year quantile of 32%. Its gross profit was 3,177 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 36 yuan/ton, and a seven - year quantile of 66% [8]. - The average price of TDI was 11,225 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 155 yuan/ton, and a seven - year quantile of 9%. Its gross profit was - 280 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 69 yuan/ton, and a seven - year quantile of 23% [8]. - Oil - Gas - Olefin Industry Chain - Raw Material Prices: Ethane had an average price of 1172 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 72 yuan/ton, and a ten - year quantile of 50%. Propane had an average price of 4189 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 183 yuan/ton, and a ten - year quantile of 63%. NYMEX natural gas had an average price of 1317 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 135 yuan/ton, and a ten - year quantile of 82%. Brent crude oil had an average price of 3576 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 428 yuan/ton, and a ten - year quantile of 62%. Naphtha had an average price of 4221 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 330 yuan/ton, and a ten - year quantile of 62%. Steam coal had an average price of 470 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 25 yuan/ton, and a ten - year quantile of 40%. Methanol had an average price of 2711 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton, and a ten - year quantile of 71% [8]. - Profit Comparison of Oil - Gas Routes: For polyethylene production, the profit of ethane cracking was 1418 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 93 yuan/ton, a change of + 51 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the year, and a year - on - year decrease of 467 yuan/ton. The profit of naphtha cracking was 100 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 348 yuan/ton, a change of + 25 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the year, and a year - on - year increase of 25 yuan/ton. The profit of MTO was - 548 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 32 yuan/ton, a change of - 151 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the year, and a year - on - year decrease of 151 yuan/ton. The profit of CTO was 2113 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 89 yuan/ton, a change of + 912 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the year, and a year - on - year increase of 298 yuan/ton. For polypropylene production, the profit of PDH was - 38 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 147 yuan/ton, a change of - 386 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the year, and a year - on - year increase of 52 yuan/ton. The profit of naphtha cracking was - 80 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 308 yuan/ton, a change of - 221 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the year, and a year - on - year increase of 481 yuan/ton. The profit of MTO was - 909 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 7 yuan/ton, a change of - 423 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the year, and a year - on - year decrease of 737 yuan/ton. The profit of CTO was 1752 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton, a change of + 641 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the year, and a year - on - year increase of 170 yuan/ton [8]. - C2 and C3 Sectors and Coal - Chemical Industry Chain - C2 Sector: The average price of ethylene was 6099 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 180 yuan/ton. The average price of HDPE was 7975 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 30 yuan/ton. The average price of ethylene glycol was 4492 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 82 yuan/ton. The average price of ethylene oxide was 6400 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 80 yuan/ton. The average price of polyether macromonomer was 8200 yuan/ton, with no change. The average price of ethanolamine was 5800 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 150 yuan/ton. The average price of dimethyl carbonate was 3860 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 60 yuan/ton. The average price of styrene was 7830 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 120 yuan/ton. The average price of polystyrene was 8600 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 30 yuan/ton [10]. - C3 Sector: The average price of propylene was 5690 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 230 yuan/ton. The average price of polypropylene was 7136 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 24 yuan/ton. The average price of acrylic acid was 6830 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 170 yuan/ton. The average price of butyl acrylate was 8190 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 190 yuan/ton. The average price of propylene oxide was 7744 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 168 yuan/ton [10]. - Coal - Chemical Industry Chain - Coal - Coke Products: The average price of coking coal was 1038 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 31 yuan/ton. The average price of coke was 1081 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 26 yuan/ton, and its gross profit was - 47 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 22 yuan/ton [10]. - Traditional Coal - Chemical Products: The average price of synthetic ammonia was 2214 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 58 yuan/ton, and its gross profit was 336 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 63 yuan/ton. The average price of methanol was 2100 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 8 yuan/ton, and its gross profit was 207 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 9 yuan/ton. The average price of urea was 1802 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 11 yuan/ton, and its gross profit was 156 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The average price of DMF was 3960 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton, and its gross profit was - 214 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 22 yuan/ton. The average price of acetic acid was 2381 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 17 yuan/ton, and its gross profit was 4 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 61 yuan/ton [10]. - New Materials: The average price of DMC was 10800 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 120 yuan/ton, and its gross profit was - 2141 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 114 yuan/ton. The average price of oxalic acid was 2700 yuan/ton, with no change. The average price of octanol was 7