2025年7月宏观及大类资产月报：关注7月政治局会议，结构性政策依然可期-20250629

Group 1: Market Overview and Asset Allocation - The A-share market showed a mixed performance in June, with the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, and ChiNext Index rising by 2.3%, 2.1%, and 6.6% respectively [1][13] - The bond market strengthened, with an overall increase of 0.3%, and government bond yields for 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year bonds decreasing by 11.0bp, 5.5bp, and 2.9bp respectively [1][13] - The market is expected to maintain a weak oscillation in July, influenced by the gradual implementation of fiscal policies and the upcoming Politburo meeting [2][36] Group 2: Economic Fundamentals - The domestic economy remains resilient, with a projected GDP growth rate of approximately 5.2% year-on-year for Q2 and 5.3% for the first half of the year [4][53] - The export sector is experiencing a gradual decline, with the impact of tariffs expected to deepen, while domestic demand continues to support industrial production [2][53] - The upcoming Politburo meeting is anticipated to focus on implementing previous policies rather than introducing new stimulus measures [4][53] Group 3: Sector Strategies - Investment strategies suggest focusing on low-position, rebound sectors, particularly in technology, real estate, and supply-side reform, which are expected to benefit from policy support [2][44] - The AI industry chain has shown performance, with domestic PCB and CPO sectors leading gains, although caution is advised due to potential adjustments in overseas markets [44][47] - Consumer sectors, particularly those benefiting from the "old-for-new" subsidy policies, are expected to see positive impacts, including white goods and baby products [47][48] Group 4: Bond Market Strategy - The upcoming Politburo meeting in July is viewed as a critical window for potential interest rate cuts, with expectations of a reduction of 10-15bp [3][48] - The yield on 10-year government bonds has shown a downward trend, with a recent peak of 1.7% and a subsequent decline to around 1.63% [3][48] - The bond yield movements are closely aligned with macroeconomic fundamentals, indicating a potential rebound following any interest rate cuts [3][48]